Today, WTI is trading around $87/bbl after plunging from $96 to $86 over two days. On Wednesday, US crude slumped more than 8% and closed at $88.12, and the decline continued today. Brent also slid — down nearly 9% on Wednesday from $103.6 to $94.6, and today trades around $93.6. This is the fourth straight day of losses and the first time Brent has fallen below $100 since early October. By comparison, last Friday WTI closed at $104, and Brent topped $116 in October.

Trump also softened his tone. He said he has no immediate plans to strike Iran after the midterms but stressed the US is ready to escalate if needed and that there may be no reason to do so. Earlier in the week, talk focused on limited strikes on Kharg Island, and on Tuesday morning Brent was around $104, so the market reversal was sharp. Recall that oil already fell more than 7% on Monday on hopes for talks, so the election was a second consecutive hit to prices.

The main winners are energy consumers and importers. US gasoline cost about $4.12/gal — 39% higher than before the war — and that price, Trump himself admitted, affected Republican performance. Cheaper oil restrains inflation and eases hawkish Fed expectations, which already supports gold and pressures the dollar. Exporters in the region and those who had bet on a protracted conflict lose out, as WTI is still about 50% above the start-of-year level, but the premium is compressing rapidly.

One important caveat: Democrats don't have the two-thirds majority to override a veto, and the new Congress is not seated until early January. The next few weeks will be crucial — either the election results will temper Trump's course, or he could act before new members are sworn in. Global oil inventories are near 15-year lows, so any strike on Iran could restore the premium within hours.

All this suggests that, absent US escalation, I expect Brent to trade in the $90–100 range and WTI below $90, possibly testing the high $80s amid Qatar-mediated talks. But I do not rule out a sharp $8–10 spike in a single day if reports of strikes appear before January.

Technical view: buyers need to reclaim immediate resistance at $89. That would open a path to $92, above which further gains would be difficult. The farther target is $95. On the downside, bears will try to take control of $87. A decisive break below that range would hit bulls hard and push oil toward $84, with a further extension to $81.