What supported the euro on Monday?

The primary factor was oil. Brent fell roughly 3% to $110 a barrel after Qatar-mediated talks between Iran and the U.S. continued. Media reports say U.S. President Donald Trump promised not to strike before the midterms, although he did not rule out action afterward. For the eurozone, which imports most of its energy, lower oil eases the stagflation threat.

The second reason was positioning. Ahead of the vote, major investors trimmed dollar longs, and U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly. Market participants view this more as a tactical rebound from position-covering than a change in trend. AMINA Bank notes that hedge funds suffered heavy losses in October, leaving the market limited scope to absorb surprises.

Eurozone data: better than expected, but no turning point

Recent data were mixed but broadly in line with forecasts. Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in Q3 versus expectations of 0.2%, while unemployment held at 6.5%. German inflation slowed to 2.8% in October from 3.3%—below expectations—largely thanks to a temporary cut in fuel tax. Core inflation in Germany eased to 2.1%.

The country picture is uneven. France's economy contracted 0.1% in Q3, Italy recorded no growth, and Italy's inflation jumped to 5.4% in October. Slowing German inflation reduces the case for an ECB hike in December, which limits support for the euro.

France: Fitch downgrades outlook

On Friday Fitch revised France's sovereign outlook from stable to negative. Moody's had already kept a negative outlook. The spread between French and German 10-year yields widened by 9 basis points to 165 amid ongoing protests, and French 10-year yields trade around 4.97%. France's public debt stands at 119% of GDP, the 2027 budget remains unsigned, and candidates from fringe parties lead opinion polls ahead of spring presidential elections.

ECB: Uncertainty persists.

On October 29 the ECB left the deposit rate at 2.50% and noted that financial conditions have tightened. ECB President Christine Lagarde announced she will step down on February 7, 2027; a successor is not yet named. The market expects an ECB hike in December, but slowing German inflation and rising French yields make that call less clear.

US: elections and the labor market

The Fed on October 28 kept rates at 3.75–4.00% with two votes for a hike. U.S. Q3 GDP rose 3.4% annualized; the employment cost index increased 3.4% year over year. The market still puts a higher probability on a Fed hike at the December 8–9 meeting.

This week the focus is on two events. November 3 is the midterm election. Forecasts give Democrats a high probability of winning the House, while the Senate race is less certain. Standard Chartered warns that polls show strong anti-incumbent sentiment, which does not always translate into results. On November 6 the U.S. jobs report for October will be released: a strong print would reinforce expectations for a December Fed hike.

Rate differential

The gap between the Fed's upper rate (4.00%) and the ECB deposit rate (2.50%) is 150 basis points. If the Fed hikes in December while the ECB pauses amid slowing German inflation, the gap could widen to 175. The current euro bounce does not change this factor.

What could alter the picture

In support of the euro:

- continued drops in oil and progress in Middle East talks;

- US election results that increase fiscal uncertainty and weaken the dollar;

- a weak U.S. jobs report on November 6 that reduces Fed tightening odds;

- adoption of the French budget.

Against the euro:

- strong US labor or inflation data;

- renewed strikes in the Middle East after the elections and higher oil prices;

- further deterioration in France and widening spreads;

- The ECB is shelving a December hike amid slowing inflation.

Technical picture: a retracement toward resistance

On the daily chart the pair remains in a downtrend: the price is below EMA 50 (1.1323), EMA 100 (1.1411), and EMA 200 (1.1482). On the weekly chart, the price sits below the weekly EMA 200 (1.1268). The current rise is a retracement that relieves oversold conditions. Key resistance lies in the 1.1268–1.1272 zone, where the weekly and four-hour EMA 200 converge and which marks the upper bound of the October range. Support is at 1.1171–1.1181, then the year low at 1.1104.

Conclusion

Monday's euro gain is a pause, not a reversal. It was driven by falling oil and position-squaring ahead of the vote, while the main downward pressures remain: France's twin negative outlooks, ECB leadership uncertainty, and a rate differential that favors the dollar.

Buying the euro from current levels bets on further oil weakness and disappointing U.S. data. Selling it ignores that the pair has not yet reached strong resistance and that the market is closing positions ahead of the election.

Key week: U.S. midterms on November 3 and the U.S. jobs report on November 6. If the retracement reaches 1.1268–1.1272 and strong U.S. data confirm a hawkish Fed path, pressure on the euro will resume. Until then—wait and see.

This material is informational and analytical and does not constitute individual investment advice.

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The test of the 1.1200 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, no euro purchases were made, and the entire upward move was missed.

The euro moved sharply higher in response to the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI survey, which came in above expectations despite a slight decline in the index itself. After reaching 52.9 in September, the PMI fell back to 52.7, matching the August reading. Nevertheless, the index has remained in expansion territory above 50 for the ninth consecutive month.

However, the most disappointing news for the euro during the first half of the day came from German retail sales. In September, they fell by 2.0%, compared with expectations for a 0.4% increase. This indicator measures the volume of goods sold by retailers, so such a significant deviation from forecasts points not to a one-off fluctuation but to a notable cooling in consumer demand in the region's largest economy. Weak consumer demand reduces price pressures and strengthens the arguments of those advocating a more accommodative ECB policy.

Later, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released, with a forecast of 54.7 following the previous reading of 54.5. September construction spending data will also be published, with an expected increase of 0.3% following a 0.9% rise. Strong U.S. data would support the dollar and could push EUR/USD lower again, while weak figures would give the euro an opportunity to recover some of its losses following the disappointing German retail sales report.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1220 level (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1259. At 1.1259, the position will be closed. The euro can also be sold at that level, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if U.S. economic data is weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1200 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1220 and 1.1259 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro will be sold after the price reaches 1.1200 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1157, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if U.S. data exceeds expectations. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1220 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1200 and 1.1157 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market-entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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The October report for the eurozone looks decent on its own. Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.7 from 52.9 in September, but it beat economists' forecasts and remained in expansion for the ninth month in a row. This is a two-month low, yet September's 52.9 was the highest since May 2022, so I view the dip as mostly cosmetic. What matters more is the composition of the reading, because the components will shape the ECB's agenda in the coming weeks.

Output continued to grow, but the pace slowed to a four-month low, with the output subindex falling to 52.8 from 53.6 a month earlier. Inflow of new orders also weakened, while export orders rose at the fastest pace in more than four and a half years. Notably, that dynamic benefits factories oriented to external markets, primarily in Germany and the Netherlands, whereas firms dependent on domestic demand entered Q4 with noticeably less resilience.

I will draw attention to the survey's supply side. Delivery times lengthened in October at the fastest rate since June, and as a result the backlog of uncompleted orders rose at the quickest pace since May 2022. Recall that precautionary stockpiling during delivery delays is a classic defensive strategy, as firms buy today fearing that tomorrow will be more expensive and harder. The fear is not groundless, since expensive energy pushed inflation to the highest level since May. Manufacturers responded with sharp increases in selling prices, and the pace barely changed from September. It follows that rising input costs are currently pressuring industry margins and may reach consumers only later as a secondary effect.

Uneven growth adds to the ECB's headache. Of eight countries with available data, six showed expansion, and the pace of improvement in each case was historically strong. France and Italy returned to deterioration, and Paris also suffers from domestic political uncertainty. Where exports, defense orders, and stockpiling operate, factories are busy, but domestic demand is not providing the same support in France. Morning data on Germany also point to weak consumers: retail sales fell 2.0% in September versus an expected 0.4% increase.

UK manufacturing entered the fourth quarter noticeably stronger. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8 from 51.9 in September, hitting a five-month high and matching the preliminary estimate. Output rose for the seventh month in a row, at the fastest pace in 25 months, and the inflow of new orders accelerated to the strongest level since July, with demand improving from both domestic and overseas clients. Export orders rose for the tenth consecutive month, driven by sales to Brazil, mainland China, the EU, Middle Eastern countries, and the US. Growth covered consumer, intermediate, and investment goods, with investment goods output rising the most and intermediate goods the least. Firms' one-year business confidence rose to an eight-month high.

The second half of the report reads less encouragingly. Cost inflation accelerated, delivery times lengthened to one of the most pronounced degrees in four years, and inventories of purchased materials continued to decline. Employment remained unchanged after six straight months of hiring, because some firms, according to the survey, are postponing capacity expansion while trying to offset higher labor, transport, and raw material costs. In my view, the picture of rising output, stalled hiring, and accelerating costs argues for caution at the Bank of England and is unlikely to give the pound a durable footing.

Next, initiative will likely shift back to the dollar. The ISM manufacturing index for October is forecast at 54.7 versus 54.5 in September, and its price component is expected at 77.2 after 77.9 previously. If US purchasing prices surprise higher again, the market will conclude that inflationary pressure persists and will revise Fed rate expectations toward slower easing, which would support the dollar. I will add US construction spending for September, where the consensus is for 0.3% after 0.9%. A weak print would give the euro and the pound some relief, but I do not expect it to outweigh the ISM if that report comes in above forecasts.

If the ISM disappoints or if a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel sounds hawkish, the euro could hold near the morning highs for a while longer. Even then, I do not see European figures justifying sustained gains, because the market buys growth and then starts to count its cost. I expect EUR/USD and GBP/USD to resume declines in the coming sessions, with the morning impulse being an episode rather than the start of a new trend.

Technically for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking 1.1230. Only then would a test of 1.1260 be possible. From there a move to 1.1290 is feasible, but doing so without support from major players will be difficult. On a decline, I expect serious buying interest only around 1.1200. If there is nobody there, it would be prudent to wait for a fresh low at 1.1170 or to open long positions from 1.1140.

Technically for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3440. Only then would a move to 1.3467 be possible, above which further breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3492 area. On a drop, bears will try to seize control of 1.3400. If they succeed, a range breakout would inflict serious damage on bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward a low of 1.3380 with a prospect of extending to 1.3350.

Under the renewed contract, InstaForex retains its status as the club's official partner. The company's logo will continue to adorn the ice arena and the team's uniforms, while Peter Jandura, the broker's representative in Slovakia, will continue to attend matches in Zvolen in person and support the team from the stands.

The new Tipsport Liga season for Zvolen kicks off on September 15, 2026. In the opening round, the team will play an away match against Banská Bystrica, launching their campaign for championship points.

Meanwhile, Zvolen is actively preparing for the season under head coach Marek Zadina. Preparations are proceeding as scheduled—all players are healthy and fit, and the team is training injury-free.

Changes have also affected the coaching staff. Former Latvian national team player Jānis Andersons has joined the staff, while Jozef Budaj is currently combining his club duties with responsibilities for the Slovak U18 national team.

The roster is also being gradually finalized. Goaltender Lukáš Klimeš and defenseman Gianni Fairbrother have already joined training, with forwards Brooklyn Kalmikov, Sean Josling, and center Cole Cassels expected to arrive in the coming days.

Ahead for Zvolen are fitness testing for players and their first home preseason exhibition game against Czech club Berani Zlín.

US midterm elections are tomorrow, and market participants assign a 93.6% probability that Democrats will take control of the House. Donald Trump has already pledged to use his veto power if Democrats obtain a majority, so a political stalemate in Washington is the baseline scenario. The historical record looks uncomfortable. Bitcoin finished the fourth quarter down in each of the last three election years, losing 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022, and all three periods coincided with bear markets. Those drawdowns are an opportunity for those who sold long ago and are now waiting for an entry point. Late buyers using leverage lose out, as their positions are flushed on the way down.

There is a counterargument. On average, Bitcoin gained more than 50% in the twelve months after midterm elections.

Macro data adds uncertainty. Tuesday will bring September job openings, and Friday the October employment report, where the forecast is for 65,000 new jobs after 29,000 in September, when economists had expected 84,000. A weak print raises the odds of dovish signals from the Fed, which supports liquidity and appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin. This week Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak, and their tone could shift expectations before Friday.

A third source of risk comes from the technology sector. About 20% of S&P 500 companies will report in the coming days, and Apple and Palantir will publish results after the close on Monday. Last week delivered a tech selloff on disappointing guidance, which revived doubts about the returns on artificial intelligence investments. The market is now highly sensitive to news from that sector, so negative data could easily pull Bitcoin and Ether down again.

Bitcoin

The price is trading in a narrow range between nearest support at $77,800 and nearest resistance at $78,300, so the plan is built around two mirror directions with a full set of scenarios for breakouts and rejections. I consider two options for buying. If the price holds above $78,300, provided it remains above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero, the target is $79,000, where profits should be taken and a short on the pullback may be considered. If a downside breakout is not confirmed and price bounces from $77,800 after a false move, then a buy targets $78,300 and then the same outer objective at $79,000.

Sell scenarios are merged into one. A close below $77,800, provided the 50-day moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero, opens a short with a target of $77,000. If an upside breakout does not hold and the price is rejected at $78,300, then a sell target is $77,800 and then lower, toward $77,000.

Ether

The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with the nearest support at $2,276 and the nearest resistance at $2,288. A buy is considered on a hold above $2,288, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero, with a target of $2,305, where profits are taken and a short on the pullback may be allowed. If a false downside breakout is not confirmed and the price bounces from $2,276, then a buy goes to $2,288 and then to $2,305.

A sell is opened on a close below $2,276, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero, with a target of $2,250. If an upside breakout does not hold and the price is rejected at $2,288, then a sell goes to $2,276 and then lower to $2,250. Both indicators remain filters to screen out false moves rather than standalone entry signals, and decisions are made only after price has actually confirmed the indicated levels.

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Investors around the world are confronting a compound shock. Political uncertainty from the US midterms and a French debt crisis was amplified by panic in commodity markets and a sharp drop in gold prices.

Tech stocks are bearing the brunt — Intel's collapse is a prime example — and the crypto space was hit hard by a massive cyber-heist that cost Binance billions.

In this note, we analyze the triggers behind these events, identify hidden vulnerabilities that persist beneath the calm, and outline adjustments investors can make to navigate heightened financial instability.

Calm before financial storm: markets hold breath ahead of US midterms and "French trap" for euro

Monday, November 2, opened with deceptively quiet markets. During the Asian session, the dollar and major FX pairs showed notable stability. But that external calm masks significant tension: investors are holding their breath ahead of a sequence of events capable of reshaping global markets.

The week's main political event is the US midterm election on November 3, which will determine control of the House and Senate and directly influence federal spending trends — with consequences for global risk appetite. However, politics is only part of the story: a marathon of macro releases is also due, including October labor data in the US and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, the RBA, Norges Bank, and the Riksbank.

While the dollar waits, the euro is under pressure near 17-month lows, levels not seen since May 2025. The culprit is France. On Friday, after markets closed, Fitch cut France's sovereign outlook from "stable" to "negative."

Fitch warns that political fragmentation and slowing growth reduce Paris's ability to rein in public debt. Projections are worrying: government debt could reach 124% of GDP by 2028, versus 115.7% in 2025.

Domestic political paralysis is part of the problem. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's budget package, intended to cut the deficit, has yet to win parliamentary approval. Moody's earlier left France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, signaling that policymakers must still reach a deal on the 2027 budget.

In the US, polls show Democrats favored to win control of the House, while the Senate race remains competitive. Eric Robertsen, head of global research at Standard Chartered, cautions that despite strong anti-establishment sentiment, electorates can still surprise.

If Democrats sweep both chambers, markets could face one of the sharpest political confrontations over the debt ceiling in recent memory.

Liquidity concerns add to the nervousness. Andrea Kobrelich of AMINA Bank notes that October hedge fund losses were large enough to erode cushions for many big players. In that setting, markets have little spare capacity to absorb shocks.

When volatility and geopolitical risks rise, speed of execution and robust trading tools matter. The FX pairs and instruments mentioned are available for trading on the InstaForex platform.

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Gold tumbles to $3,875: tankers, inflation, and margin calls

Friday, October 30, was a truly dark day for gold bulls. The yellow metal suffered its sharpest drop in months, plunging by 3.6%. Spot gold closed at $3,875.55/oz, the lowest level since October 2025. For the month of October, gold lost roughly 6.8%, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. That leaves the metal about 30% below its January all-time high near $5,595. What triggered this storm? An "ideal storm" of geopolitics, macroeconomic pressure, and panic on equity floors.

The catalyst was oil. An attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the large supply risks from the ongoing US-Israel-Iran confrontations, Reuters notes. Rising crude instantly stoked inflation fears.

Those fears were reinforced by hard data: September US inflation showed renewed acceleration. While the Fed held interest rates at its October meeting, the market is already pricing in further tightening.

CME Group's FedWatch tool puts the odds of a December hike at about 72.9%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan went further, saying the Fed needs "at least two more 25-bp hikes." For gold, a non-yielding asset, expensive money is always toxic.

But don't blame macro alone. Behind the scenes a liquidity drama unfolded. A sharp tech?sector sell?off (the Nasdaq Composite plunged by 2.9%) triggered a cascade of margin calls. Traders urgently needed cash and began selling the most liquid assets, including gold.

Commerzbank views the metal's drop as exaggerated and still expects a recovery. Bart Melek at TD Securities agrees: the oil shock redirected flows into US Treasuries, pulling money out of equities and bullion.

Paradoxically, Treasury yields fell during Friday's session — a sign that a large share of the gold collapse was not driven by fundamentals but by forced liquidations.

In Asian trading on Monday, November 2, gold made a tentative attempt to recover. Analysts urge caution: any bounce may be weak until traders get clarity on the December Fed decision. Over the medium term, the metal remains pressured by a strong dollar and elevated yields.

Not all forecasts are bleak. A recent Reuters survey trimmed its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,495 but raised the 2027 estimate to $4,650, reflecting continued faith in the metal's long-term potential.

North Korean hackers pull off $6.3 billion heist, biggest crypto theft on record

While global investors pore over corporate balance sheets, North Korean hackers have rewritten the record books of the crypto industry. In late October, Binance suffered the largest exchange hack ever, losing assets of a staggering size. For reference, the stolen Bitcoin alone, roughly 18,270 BTC (about $1.43 billion), exceeds Tesla's entire corporate Bitcoin treasury (11,509 BTC as of the end of September) by nearly 60%.

But BTC was only the tip of the iceberg. Total losses, including Ether and stablecoins, reached an eye-watering $6.3 billion. The Associated Press has already labeled the incident the largest theft in the history of digital assets.

On October 31, the FBI tied the attack to a North Korean state-linked group known as TraderTraitor — part of the broader Lazarus infrastructure. Investigators say this was not a smash-and-grab opportunistic hack but a planned operation.

The attackers didn't hold the stolen value in Bitcoin; they quickly began converting assets into Ethereum. Blockchain analytics firm BitQuery reports that by the end of October, the hackers' wallets held more than 525,000 ETH that now need to be "cleaned."

Investigators traced the vulnerability to a basic human failure. The attack began with a compromised laptop belonging to one of Binance's engineers. Once inside the internal network, the attackers bypassed standard transaction-approval safeguards.

At 20:05 UTC on October 29, they emptied the exchange's hot wallets. Binance co-founder and co-chair Richard Teng confirmed the compromise and said funds were withdrawn from a wallet with direct internet access.

The unprecedented incident has already disrupted business plans for Binance partners. Philippine firm BlockShoals Technologies, which had been preparing to roll out Binance products in a regulatory sandbox run by the local SEC, said it must pause operations. BlockShoals said it is carefully assessing the hack's impact on a 90-day systems integration phase.

Meanwhile, scammers have proliferated amid the panic. Binance urged users to rely only on official channels and to ignore fraudulent promises of "recovered funds."

$140 billion wiped out in a day: Intel's 28% plunge drags market down

Friday, October 30, was a day investors will not forget soon. Shares of tech giant Intel collapsed 28.58% — not just a routine correction but the company's most catastrophic one-day drop since July 1974. Roughly $140 billion of market capitalization evaporated in a single session. What triggered panic across Wall Street and Asian exchanges?

The painful part for investors is that the trigger wasn't an outright earnings miss. Intel reported a strong Q3: revenue rose by 21% to $16.5 billion, and its data center and AI segment surged about 78%. But the euphoria was instantly crushed by the Q4 guidance. Instead of Wall Street's expected $17.07 billion in revenue and $0.43 EPS, management guided to only $15–16 billion and $0.25 EPS. Against a strong quarter, that "cold shower" hit investors especially hard.

The primary culprit is a paradoxical side effect of the AI boom. AI data centers are buying high-bandwidth memory at such rates that memory prices have spiked, pushing up PC costs and compressing consumer demand for PCs. CEO Patrick (Lip?Bu) Tan conceded that customers are flagging a slowdown in the PC market. Forecasts are bleak: PC shipments are expected to fall about 12% this year and another 10% in 2027. Revenue from PC processors, roughly $8.1 billion last quarter, could drop by more than 20%, per The Wall Street Journal.

Financial pain was compounded by a tragic operational shock. A gas explosion at Fab 28 in Kiryat Gat, Israel, killed two workers and shut the plant for two weeks. CFO David Zinsner put the hit in stark terms: about $300 million of lost revenue in Q4 and a roughly 200-bp hit to gross margin. The echo from that disruption will likely affect results into Q1 next year.

Analysts reacted quickly and harshly. Bank of America cut its rating to Neutral and slashed its target from $145 to $100. Bernstein and UBS cut forecasts to $75 and $80, respectively. Bernstein's Stacey Rasgon called Intel's guidance simply "terrible."

The panic spread beyond Intel. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged by 7.2%, AMD fell by nearly 11%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86%. The selling wave hit Asia as well: Korea's Kospi slid by 3.48%, tripping circuit breakers, and titans SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics also fell sharply.

This level of volatility in semiconductors and megacaps is both a risk for long-term investors and an opportunity for active traders. Proper platforms and risk management enable trading both the downside and the rebound.

The trading instruments mentioned in this note, including major tech stocks and index products, are available on the InstaForex platform. Grab your chance to benefit from global market shifts: open an account on this reliable platform today and download the mobile app to stay on top of global markets and trade 24/7 from anywhere in the world.

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The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening this year and another one next year. This factor continues to provide strong support for the U.S. dollar, while other factors are regarded by traders as secondary.

The fundamental background on Friday supported bears, although all the day's reports could easily have been interpreted as favorable for the euro. However, the market was most disappointed by the slowdown in German inflation and largely overlooked the reports on economic growth and unemployment. The German inflation report did not cause a major decline in the euro, but it set back its recent progress by several days. Bullish traders are attempting to reverse the bearish trend, but have yet to achieve any results.

There will be plenty of important events this week, and it is impossible to predict the market's reaction in advance. The U.S. congressional elections will take place tomorrow, the Eurozone inflation report will be released on Wednesday, and the U.S. labor market and unemployment reports are scheduled for Friday. In addition, Donald Trump could resume military action against Iran at any time, an event that would hardly go unnoticed by the market. Consequently, either bulls or bears could launch a significant advance on any given day. In the current situation, the euro's weakness is its main advantage.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD reversed in favor of the euro and returned to the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1221. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1088, keeping bears in control. Consolidation above 1.1221 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 100.0% (1.1325). A bearish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 4,225 Long positions and 13,595 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 231,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 374,000. Bears maintain their advantage, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This is attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market believes that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the long term. Undoubtedly, various global developments, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events. Therefore, the euro is waiting for a more favorable opportunity.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Retail Sales (07:00 UTC).
• Germany – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:00 UTC).
• United States – ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (15:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for November 2 contains four events, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI being the most noteworthy. Economic data is expected to influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Long positions may be considered today following an hourly close above 1.1220, with a target of 1.1325. Short positions may be considered following a rebound from 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

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Other data did not add optimism for the euro. Unemployment was forecast at 6.4% but rose to 6.5% in September. Worse for the euro, Germany's consumer price index rose 0.2% m/m versus expectations of 0.1% after a 0.6% jump in September, while French consumer prices surged 0.4% after a 0.3% decline the month before. Taken together, these prints show an uneven inflation backdrop across European countries, and now everyone will wait for eurozone inflation data because they will indicate how the European Central Bank plans to act next.

Later in the session pressure on both the euro and the pound increased as the dollar came back into demand. Fed officials Alberto Musalem and Mary Daly spoke, and their positions were clear. Rates are likely to rise again in December, and the market continues to price that scenario. The outlook beyond that is still unclear because they did not clarify Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stance, who spoke cautiously after last week's hold. Nevertheless, the market is tilting to a firmer path, which is bullish for the dollar and negative for risk assets.

Now let us look at the economic calendar, which is busy with eurozone releases today—manufacturing PMIs for October. France is expected at 49.3 points, i.e., below 50 and indicating contraction. Germany is forecast at 54.2, a decent print given earlier industrial struggles. For the euro area overall, the manufacturing PMI is forecast at 52.4, implying activity will continue to grow. The UK manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.8, also a solid reading that could support both the euro and the pound.

A similar story awaits the US: the US manufacturing activity index is forecast at 56.0, and the ISM manufacturing index at 54.7 after 54.5. Overall the readings look good and indicate healthy US growth, reinforcing the Q3 GDP message. Strong US data could tilt the scales back toward dollar buying.

EUR/USD technicals: for shorts we have 1.1205—a false break. There is a cue to open shorts targeting 1.1172. If bulls fail there, a break and hold below this band will increase pressure and send the pair to 1.1138, where I would consider longs on a false break. The farther seller target is 1.1108, where I buy a rebound for 25–30 pips. Longs from 1.1172 and 1.1138 are only in the event of false breaks. If sellers fail at 1.1205, the euro could rally toward 1.1231 and then to 1.1254, where I sell into the bounce for 20–25 pips. Shorts from 1.1231 and 1.1205 also require false breaks.

GBP/USD: on good data the bulls will try to regain 1.3404—only a false break there gives a reason to short. If no follow-through occurs, delay shorts until last week's high at 1.3430, which is also a shorting area if a break does not hold. Short bounces from 1.3467 target 30–35 pips. I advise caution on longs this week; markets will likely be more hesitant early in the week. Consider longs on false breaks from 1.3374 and 1.3346, and buy bounces from 1.3325 for 20–25 pips.

I expect the main test for the euro today will be the combination of European PMIs and the US ISM. I would not be surprised if strong US figures again push the dollar higher, especially amid talk of a December hike. For the pound the outcome depends on the UK PMI: a strong print will give bulls a chance to hold above recent levels.

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Technical reading and price action.

Structure of price channels: The price moves within a wide main descending channel that reflects the general negative path, and is interspersed with a steep descending sub-channel that directly and effectively puts pressure on the price movement and pushes it towards successive new lows. It is noted that the price is currently positioned near the lower borders of these channels, amid slight fluctuation attempts to build a temporary support base near the current levels following the rebound from the recent local bottom recorded at levels close to 3889.80.

Interaction with the pivot and resistance levels: The price faced violent downward pressure after failing to hold the highest pivot levels represented by the Weekly Pivot point at 3942.27 and the upper resistance levels such as Weekly R1 and Weekly R2. As a result of these intense pressures, the price penetrated the support lines downwards to trade at the lowest pivot levels, aiming to gradually approach the first weekly support levels (Weekly S1) located at the lower levels.

Pivotal support and resistance levels.

Main resistance levels:

First resistance: level 3942.27 (the weekly pivot point and the dividing line of the intraday trend).

Second resistance: 4008.80 level (Weekly R1 resistance level and previous retracement areas).

Pivotal resistance: 4154.76 level (Weekly R2).

Main support levels:

First support: 3889.80 level (last intraday low and current retracement area).

Second support: 3802.33 level (the extended lower limit of the descending channels and the upcoming psychological support).

Main support: areas of 3771.65 and below in the event that the price collapse continues and selling momentum increases.

Price action forecasts and trading recommendations.

Bearish scenario (main):

The negative path is dominant and most likely as long as the price settles below the nearby resistance levels and the lowest weekly pivot point 3942.27.

Recommendation: It is preferable to sell with every upward corrective bounce towards the levels of 3920.00 - 3942.27 as long as you keep preventing prices from rising.

Technical objectives: targeting the break of the current support bottom at 3889.80, then extending towards the lower borders at 3802.33 levels.

Corrective bullish scenario (alternative):

It is activated if intense purchasing forces emerge that succeed in lifting prices from the current lows and breaching technical resistance levels.

Verification condition: 4-hour candle closes clearly above the weekly pivot level 3942.27.

Technical objectives: Opening the way for a deeper positive correction targeting 4008.80 levels and then approaching the second weekly resistance.

Gold Price on the Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 3897.92 within a descending channel on the daily timeframe, reflecting a sharp decline and intense selling pressure as it remains below key pivot levels—specifically the monthly pivot point at 3989.91.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles:

Friday's Candle: This candle signaled a steep drop and immense selling momentum, breaking through previous support levels and pushing the price to test new lows near 3876.22.

Today's Candle: Shows minor attempts at consolidation near 3897.92, while the bears (sellers) remain in complete control within the descending channel.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains the most likely outcome as long as the price holds below the monthly pivot point and nearby resistance levels. The decline could potentially continue, targeting the next monthly support level at 3754.69 (Monthly S1).

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting the price and initiating a corrective rebound toward nearby resistance levels.

Please note that trading in metals, futures, and indices will be closed on April 3, 2026.

BTC/USD is trading around $78,000, down roughly 5% from the recent high reached before Binance disclosed the $6.3 billion breach. The token's resilience is largely explained by the exchange's swift response and its immediate pledge to cover all losses.

Binance remains the largest crypto exchange globally with $135 billion in assets — about four times any rival. The fact that Bitcoin held up over the weekend is read by the market as a vote of confidence in Binance's assurances, especially since the exchange itself is buying the token to compensate users' losses.

Market depth dynamics in crypto

But the mood underneath is far from calm. Market participants view the incident as only the tip of the iceberg and expect further hacks as AI capabilities advance, given that even the largest exchange proved vulnerable.

The contrast with the FTX collapse in 2022 is stark. Back then, the largest digital asset lost nearly 19% in a week as Sam Bankman-Fried's exchange went from a liquidity crisis to bankruptcy and trust evaporated across the market. Investors treated the current episode as an operational shock rather than a systemic one, and buyers returned within hours.

Bybit's history — where hackers stole about $1.5 billion in 2025 — warns of deceptive calm. The token's initial reaction then was muted, but losses mounted, and a week after the February 21 attack, BTC/USD fell almost 14%.

For institutional investors, the lesson is simple: no venue is risk-free, and their future demand remains crucial for the industry. Concerns about operational security risk deterring precisely those buyers.

The crypto market is noticeably more mature. Against trillions of dollars in crypto holdings, a $6 billion loss in a single hack does not look apocalyptic. Still, each new incident forces stronger protections.

Bitcoin and other tokens were already under pressure before the hack. Investors sold large tech stocks after weak earnings, pushing the Nasdaq-100 into its third technical correction this year. But the bigger short-term influence on crypto may come from the US midterms: a change in party control of Congress could determine the fate of digital-asset regulation.

If even the world's biggest exchange proved vulnerable, who will dare call their holdings truly safe?

Technically, the daily BTC/USD chart shows bulls attempting to recover the internal bars. If they fail, short entry points are at $77,300 and $76,900. A break of the local low at $76,150 would increase the risk of a continued correction toward $74,000 and $69,500.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major global currencies, failed to hold Friday's modest recovery from the 101.50 area and ran into seller pressure again at the start of the new trading week. In the first half of the European session, the index maintained a negative intraday tone and traded near 101.40, down more than 0.20% for the day. Renewed expectations of a diplomatic settlement that could end the standoff between the US and Iran drove the weakeness.

According to reports, an Iranian delegation held talks with Qatari mediators for a third consecutive day on Sunday and presented a two?day scheme to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, conditional on the US meeting certain demands. US President Donald Trump said the dialogue with Tehran is developing positively and that Iran appears ready to reach an agreement. Such news boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the US dollar (USD) as a classic safe?haven asset.

Geopolitical uncertainty has not disappeared, however: Donald Trump left open the possibility of new military action after the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Additional support for DXY could come from an escalation of the Russia?Ukraine conflict and from market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December. Sellers should therefore remain cautious, especially ahead of this week's key US macro releases.

Technically, the intraday bias for the index remains bearish while prices sit below the 100?hour simple moving average (SMA) around 102.06. Oscillators are negative, and the RSI has approached oversold territory, warning of a possible correction or consolidation. Taken together, these momentum signals point to the bears having the edge.

To relieve the current downward pressure, the index needs to reclaim the nearest resistance — the 100?period SMA. Immediate support is at 101.40. A decisive break below that level could accelerate the decline: DXY may drop beneath the psychologically important 101.00 mark.

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October's tech rout, a re-rating of AI prospects, and tomorrow's US congressional elections keep equity markets on edge. The October FOMC, where two votes favored an immediate hike, heightened concerns about further tightening in December. Capital continues to flow out of an overheated Nasdaq and into value sectors, widening the historical divergence between indices.

Key facts:

• US midterm elections on November 3 will determine control of the House and Senate and prompt institutional investors to trim risk ahead of the vote.
• The Fed held interest rates on October 28 at 3.75%–4.00%, but Kevin Warsh's rhetoric and inflation accelerating to 3.7% (with PPI jumping 6.3%) keep a December hike squarely on the table.
• October was the Nasdaq Composite's worst month since March 2025 (?5.3% amid collapses in Alphabet and Intel), while the Dow outperformed thanks to exposure to traditional cyclicals and dividend payers.

Trading focus:

• cautious Nasdaq 100 selling on local bounces
• range-bound S&P 500 trading
• buying Dow Jones from key support levels

Fundamental outlook for US indices this week

The primary political trigger is the congressional vote. Historically, election outcomes have direct implications for tax policy, tariffs, and the fiscal stance. Ahead of the count, large funds typically de-risk and adopt a wait-and-see stance. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to about 4.93% amid a rush into safe-haven bonds, but equities are not responding with the usual optimism — bond flows are being read as a sign of slowing growth momentum.

The monetary backdrop after the October 28 FOMC meeting gives no reason to relax. The Fed paused at 3.75%–4.00%, but the vote split (10?2) and hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh make clear that if inflation at 3.7% persists, a December hike is likely. With the next meeting not until mid-December, every macro release in November, from labor market reports to senior loan officer surveys, will be assessed through the lens of a potential 25?bp December move.

At the micro level, Q3 earnings season has exposed investor fatigue with hefty AI spending. The one-day collapses in Alphabet (-12.6%) and Intel (-28.6%) demonstrated that the market no longer forgives multibillion-dollar capex without commensurate free-cash-flow payoff. Money is not leaving the market entirely — it is rotating: the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the conservative Dow Jones are outperforming mega-caps as institutions favor defensive healthcare, retail, and commodity leaders.

Trading plans for this week

S&P 500 (US 500)

External calm in the S&P 500 is deceptive: while the index hovers near record highs, an internal sell-off is well underway. The Kobeissi Letter estimates that more than 60% of S&P 500 constituents have fallen at least 20% from their peaks — technically, a bear market for the majority of US stocks, even as the cap-weighted index gives an illusion of stability.

The cause is the extreme concentration of capital. Roughly 70% of the rally from March lows rested on just ten companies. That foundation is rapidly deteriorating: four of the Magnificent Seven have lost 15% or more of market cap, and the mega-cap group has wiped out about $4 trillion in value, exceeding the entire crypto industry. Alphabet shares plunged by 31% from $400 to $282, and Meta is down more than 21% from August highs.

Tech favorites and crypto-linked names are at the epicenter of liquidation:

• AppLovin — down 68% from its high
• CoreWeave — down 60%
• Western Digital — down 54%
• Oracle — down 51%

The Kobeissi Letter calls this a harsh reality: the outright majority of S&P 500 components are already in bear territory. Analysts stop short of forecasting a systemic market collapse. This anomaly could turn into an attractive entry point if money rotates broadly and liquidity flows into lagging sectors.

The index finished last week near 7,580, about 3% off October highs. We expect volatile trading within a wide corridor. Primary scenario (short positions from the upper boundary):

• Sell limit: 7,660–7,680
• Stop-loss: 7,715
• Take-profit 1: 7,580
• Take-profit 2: 7,510

Alternative scenario (buy from support):

• Buy limit: 7,500
• Stop-loss: 7,460
• Take-profit 1: 7,590
• Take-profit 2: 7,650

Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100)

The index is trading around 25,400. The technical picture remains dominated by semiconductor selling. Rallies are used by large players to lock in gains. Primary scenario (sell on corrections):

• Sell limit: 25,750–25,850
• Stop-loss: 26,050
• Take-profit 1: 25,250
• Take-profit 2: 24,800

Short-cover cancellation scenario: consolidation above 26,150 would invalidate the bearish wave and open a path toward testing 26,500.

Dow Jones (US 30)

The index closed October near 51,770 and remains relatively resilient thanks to rotation into real-economy sectors. Primary scenario (buy the dip):

• Buy limit: 51,450–51,550
• Stop-loss: 51,150
• Take-profit 1: 52,100
• Take-profit 2: 52,500

Alternative scenario (sell a downside breakout):

• Sell stop: 51,100
• Stop-loss: 51,380
• Take-profit 1: 50,650
• Take-profit 2: 50,200

US midterm days always bring sharp volatility and emotional repricing. Given the painful rebalancing in the tech sector and the Fed's open door for a December rate hike, speculative rushes can be costly. Key advice for the coming sessions: do not trade ahead of political news, stick to pre-defined risk levels, avoid moving stop-loss orders against positions, and wait for volume confirmation after election results.

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EUR/USD is gaining ground on Monday, although bulls still lack confidence. At present, the pair is trading slightly above the 1.1200 psychological level, facing the influence of conflicting market drivers.

The euro is receiving support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance. Incoming signals indicate that a December interest rate hike remains a realistic scenario amid rising inflation risks triggered by a sharp increase in energy prices. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict are providing additional support for EUR/USD, reducing demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency. Reports indicate that Iranian negotiators held consultations with Qatari mediators for the third consecutive day on Sunday, seeking to make progress toward an agreement that could bring an end to U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. In particular, Tehran proposed a plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, provided that the United States meets several of its demands.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump described the negotiations with Tehran as "productive" but did not rule out the possibility of resuming military operations after the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. At the same time, Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, instructed the country's senior military command to prepare for a potential resumption of hostilities with the United States and Israel and to expand Tehran's range of possible retaliatory measures.

Furthermore, Ukraine's latest attacks on Russian oil refineries continue to sustain the geopolitical risk premium. This factor, combined with expectations of a December interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, is supporting the U.S. dollar and limiting the upward potential of EUR/USD.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently estimate the probability of another interest rate hike in December at approximately 75%. These expectations strengthened following the release of U.S. macroeconomic data on Thursday, which pointed to continued economic resilience and persistent price pressures. In addition, growing concerns about France's rising debt burden and the political deadlock ahead of next year's elections could also limit the upward potential of EUR/USD.

Today, traders should wait for the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM Manufacturing PMI) to identify better trading opportunities. However, the main focus should remain on Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD maintains a bearish bias in the short term, trading firmly below most moving averages. The pair is currently attempting to break above the 20-day SMA. However, bearish pressure will ease only after the price moves above the 50-day EMA and 50-day SMA range. On the other hand, the nearest significant support level is located around 1.1150. If this level is tested, buyers may attempt to slow the current downward movement. Oscillators remain in negative territory, with bears maintaining the advantage.

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The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has become more complex. On the higher time frame (lower chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave structure, A-B-C-D-E, which could be completed at any moment, as it appears structurally complete. All the waves in this segment are approximately equal in size, so it is considered corrective. If this assumption is correct, the completion of this structure will be followed by the development of an impulsive upward trend segment, with targets well above the 1.2000 level.

On the lower time frame (upper chart), an impulsive wave sequence continues to develop, which may belong to wave E on the higher time frame. If this is indeed the case, then regardless of how strongly the dollar rises, its advance is nearing an end. The presumed wave 5 within wave E has either been completed or is close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven the US currency significantly higher, but there are few new reasons to expect further dollar strength.

The European Currency Remains on the Sidelines of the Forex Market

The EUR/USD exchange rate declined by 20 basis points on Friday, and once again, the only conclusion is that there are no buyers in the market. Even if some are present, they show no willingness to trade. Last week, the euro had several good opportunities to begin forming an upward trend segment on both time frames, according to the current wave count. It would be premature to say that this scenario has failed, as it remains the base case. However, given the market sentiment seen last week, it will be very difficult for the euro to advance.

A new week is beginning. Monday can be considered a relatively quiet trading day, as the only major event today is the US ISM Manufacturing Index. However, information on the progress of voting in the United States will begin to emerge as early as tomorrow. It is worth recalling that Republicans are likely to lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in the midterm elections. In my view, market participants could interpret this development as either positive or negative for the US currency. Democrats will clearly seek to counterbalance Trump's one-sided policies, which could benefit the US economy. At the same time, the country's political course will be adjusted, which may not be particularly favorable for investors.

It is also worth noting the new protests that took place in several European countries over the weekend. Mass unrest is not, in my view, a reason in itself to continue selling the euro, but it represents another risk factor for the currency. The European Union's inflation report, due on Wednesday, is another potential risk. On Friday, it was reported that German inflation slowed by 0.5 percentage points year over year in October. If European inflation shows a similar decline, the euro could come under considerable pressure. Then, on Friday, the widely anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate will be released.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the broader corrective trend structure A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears complete and may therefore be nearing its end. In my view, this is a favorable time not only to consider buying the European currency but also to anticipate the development of a full-fledged upward trend segment. According to the higher time frame, the pair could be expected to rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The failed attempt to break below 1.1126, which corresponds to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher time frame), also suggests that the market may be ready for a move higher.

On the higher time frame, the downward trend segment has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulsive pattern, but this pattern may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

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Brief Analysis:

A downward wave has been forming on the GBP/USD chart since September 26. Its structure is developing as an extended flat and is approaching completion. At the time of analysis, the upward segment that began on October 14 has the potential to mark a reversal and, if confirmed, will initiate a new wave in the opposite direction. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the daily timeframe.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the upcoming week, the pound is expected to complete its move toward the resistance zone levels. A reversal may then develop, followed by the beginning of a downward price movement. The calculated zones indicate the most likely weekly trading range for the pair.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.3450/1.3500

Support:

• 1.3310/1.3260

Recommendations

Selling: Short positions may become possible with small position sizes once appropriate reversal signals appear near the reversal zone.

Buying: Upward potential is limited, so reducing position sizes would be safer.

AUD/USD

Brief Analysis:

A downward wave pattern has been forming on the AUD/USD chart since the beginning of the year. Its structure is developing as a running flat. The wave has entered the final stage of its formation.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the upcoming week, the price is expected to continue moving sideways. A decline toward the support zone is highly probable. This may be followed by a transition to range-bound trading. A reversal and resumption of the upward price movement are most likely closer to the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.7100/0.7150

Support:

• 0.7000/0.6950

Recommendations

Selling: Downward potential is limited. Short positions may be considered with small position sizes for intraday trading.

Buying: Long positions may become possible once reversal signals from the trading systems being used appear near the support zone.

USD/CHF

Brief Analysis:

The unfinished bullish wave on the USD/CHF chart dates back to April of this year. The wave is developing as one of two possible patterns: a running flat or an extended flat. At the time of analysis, the final part of the wave structure is forming. Since last week, the price has been forming a corrective zigzag after reaching a strong resistance level.

Weekly Forecast:

The downward movement is likely to continue over the next couple of days. A sharp increase in volatility may follow. After the price reaches the support zone, a reversal and resumption of the upward movement are expected. The calculated resistance level marks the upper boundary of the pair's expected weekly trading range.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.8360/0.8410

Support:

• 0.8190/0.8140

Recommendations

Selling: Downward potential is limited, and short positions carry considerable risk.

Buying: Long positions will become relevant once appropriate signals appear near the support zone.

EUR/JPY

Brief Analysis:

The main direction of the EUR/JPY pair has been determined by a downward wave since April of this year. The final part of wave (C) is developing but remains incomplete at the time of analysis. Last week, the price reached the upper boundary of the potential reversal zone on the higher timeframe. Quotes are moving along its upper edge.

Weekly Forecast:

Over the next few days, sideways price movement with a downward bias is likely to continue, potentially extending to the support zone boundaries. Closer to the weekend, volatility may increase, followed by a reversal and an upward movement toward the resistance zone levels.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 177.70/178.20

Support:

• 175.20/174.70

Recommendations

Buying: Long positions may be considered after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone on the trading systems being used.

Selling: Downward potential is limited, and short positions carry considerable risk.

EUR/CHF

Brief Analysis:

An upward wave has been forming on the EUR/CHF chart since March. An unfinished wave structure in the opposite direction began in late September. At the time of analysis, a hidden correction, wave (B), is developing within this structure in the form of a running flat.

Weekly Forecast:

Over the next few days, sideways trading is likely, with the price moving toward the support zone. A transition to range-bound trading is then highly probable, potentially creating conditions for a reversal. By the end of the week, the price is expected to begin rising, potentially reaching the resistance zone boundaries.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.9330/0.9380

Support:

• 0.9180/0.9130

Recommendations

Selling: Downward potential is limited. Position sizes should be reduced as much as possible, and short positions should be closed at the first signs of a reversal.

Buying: Long positions may become possible with small position sizes once appropriate signals from the trading systems being used appear near the support zone.

EUR/GBP

Brief Analysis:

A downward running flat has been developing on the chart since April of this year. Since late September, the pair has been forming a bearish segment that occupies the position of the final part of the wave structure. At the time of analysis, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the potential reversal zone on the weekly timeframe.

Weekly Forecast:

Over the next few days, sideways movement in the pair is the most likely scenario. A short-term increase in the exchange rate toward the calculated resistance zone cannot be ruled out. A reversal is then expected to form, followed by a resumption of the downward price movement. The calculated support zone marks the potential lower boundary of the decline.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.8370/0.8420

Support:

• 0.8270/0.8220

Recommendations

Buying: Position sizes should be reduced, and long positions should be closed at the first signs of a reversal.

Selling: Short positions will become relevant once reversal signals appear in the designated resistance zone.

Explanatory Notes: Under the Simplified Wave Analysis (SWA) method, all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The latest unfinished wave is analyzed on each timeframe. Expected price movements are indicated by dashed lines.

Important: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of an instrument's price movements.

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The market situation remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, bulls continue to hold the initiative. The FOMC's monetary policy tightening and the hawkish outlook communicated by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Bulls have now taken center stage, as the Bank of England may begin its monetary policy tightening cycle this week.

There was no significant news affecting the British pound or the U.S. dollar on Friday, but this week will be full of important developments. The results of the U.S. congressional elections will be announced tomorrow, the Bank of England will hold its meeting on Thursday, and the important U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be released on Friday. These are only the most significant events scheduled for this week, excluding other economic reports and geopolitical developments. Therefore, the current week could be particularly active and eventful.

In the current situation, bulls appear to have everything they need to continue their advance. However, confidence in further pound appreciation ahead of the U.S. elections, for example, would be premature. A major political event could trigger volatile and unpredictable market movements. Investors may reassess the economic outlook for the U.S. economy, potentially causing significant movements in both stock and currency markets. At present, traders are expecting a Democratic victory and monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England. In my view, these expectations are well-founded, while the morning trading session indicates that bulls are optimistic.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3277, reversed in favor of the British pound, and rose toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3409. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. currency and a potential decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. Consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 38.2% (1.3467). No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 2,417, while the number of Short positions rose by 1,411. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 57,000 versus 136,000. Bears maintain a substantial advantage, which has continued to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental backdrop has changed in recent months.

Confidence in a bearish trend for the British pound remains low. However, in the near future, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had properly begun. As early as November, the war between the two countries could resume in full force.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (09:30 UTC).
• United States – ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (15:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for November 2 contains two noteworthy events. Economic data is expected to influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today following a rebound from 1.3404 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3342 and 1.3263. Long positions were available following an hourly close above 1.3342, with a target at 1.3404. This target has been reached. New long positions may be considered following an hourly close above 1.3404, with a target range of 1.3454–1.3469.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Due to sustained high market volatility, we are implementing the following modifications to ensure a stable trading environment and to support responsible risk management:

1. Adjustment of Swap Points

During periods of rapid price fluctuations, the costs associated with maintaining open positions overnight (swaps) may change. These adjustments result from heightened liquidity risks and higher financing costs currently present in global markets.

2. Revision of Leverage Limits

To protect our clients' capital from the effects of increased market volatility, we are reducing the maximum leverage for selected metals.

Why this is important: Lower leverage increases the margin required to maintain a position, serving as a safety buffer in the event of price gaps.

Required Action: Please review your open positions and ensure your account balance is sufficient to cover the updated margin requirements.

Note: The above changes are precautionary measures aimed at protecting your capital during unpredictable market cycles. We encourage you to monitor your account status closely and utilize risk management tools, such as Stop-Loss orders.

We appreciate your understanding and continued cooperation.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said the Federal Reserve needs to raise rates again soon to restore price stability. He argued that inflation remains too high and is unlikely to fall without additional action, that policy is still accommodative and that financial conditions remain loose. Alberto Musalem added that raising interest rates sooner would reduce risks to the economy. The logic is straightforward: the longer the 3.75–4.00% funds rate remains below the level consistent with 3.6% overall PCE inflation, the more aggressive policy will have to be later.

Compared with his earlier comments, Musalem's tone has clearly hardened. On October 8, he said the funds rate should rise over the next 6–9 months to return inflation to the 2% target and did not support an October move. That was a drawn-out timetable; now he speaks of "the near term." Over the past three weeks we have seen September data showing overall PCE accelerated by 0.5% month-on-month — the fastest pace since March — and core PCE at 3.1% year-on-year. Recall Musalem's previous remark that "the value of waiting is small," so today's comments are a logical continuation of that line.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin was even more explicit about the direction. He said policy direction is already clear and the main question is the pace of rate changes. Barkin also argued that the investment boom in artificial intelligence is adding to demand-side inflation, and that the Fed can counteract it. Previously, Barkin warned that accumulated imbalances would eventually have to be paid for, without specifying a timeframe. Now he names both the mechanism — overheated AI-driven demand — and the instrument — the policy rate.

Note that neither of these two are voting members of the committee this year, so their statements do not formally determine decisions. But the market listens closely because they frame the internal Fed debate. Recall that on October 28 the rate was held in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a 25-bp increase. Warsh declined to forecast the December decision, and after the meeting the market priced in about an 85% chance of a hike on December 9.

The chain of events is as follows. First, National Economic Council Chair Kevin Hassett said a very high October inflation print would warrant action, and the dollar reacted weakly because the decision seemed deferred. Now two Fed officials say not to delay, restoring the probability that a rate hike could occur irrespective of a single month's data. The dollar benefits, while euro and pound buyers who had bet on a continued rebound lose out. This is especially unwelcome for the eurozone, since the ECB last week left rates at 2.50% and Lagarde only flagged a possible December move.

Another factor is that high energy prices continue to feed inflation expectations. Brent rose above $116 last week on the risk of renewed strikes on Iran after the November 3 Congressional elections, giving hawks an extra argument. If oil stays at those levels, Musalem's point that inflation will not fall on its own will be reinforced month after month. That is a double hit for European currencies, because expensive oil hurts energy-importing economies more than the US.

I expect the dollar to maintain an edge over the euro and the pound in the coming days until the market receives new data that softens the hawks' case. With US elections imminent and October inflation data pending, sharp moves are unlikely, but pressure on European currencies should persist in my view. If hawkish remarks are not followed by weak consumer data, a return of the euro and pound to recent highs will be doubtful.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD

Buyers need to reclaim 1.1210 to target a test of 1.1231. From there, a move to 1.1254 is possible, though doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On any pullback, serious buying is likely only around 1.1175. If no bids appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a break of the 1.1140 low or consider opening longs from 1.1110.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD

Pound bulls need to take immediate resistance at 1.3430 to target 1.3467; above that level, further progress will be difficult. The farther target is 1.3492. On a downside move, bears will try to seize control at 1.3404. If they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3363 with the potential to extend to 1.3332.

Another year is coming to an end, leaving us with valuable baggage: experience, confidence, new knowledge, and moments to be proud of. The year 2025 has been diverse — sometimes generous with discoveries and sometimes demanding in efforts, but it has undoubtedly marked an important step forward for each of us.

We are sincerely grateful to you for being by our side throughout this year, for trusting us, and for choosing us as your partner in the world of financial solutions.

For your confidence, we developed our service, expanded capabilities, and made the platform more convenient and reliable. We will continue to do so in the new year — with even greater inspiration.

The year 2026 is already at the doorstep, filled with blank pages — opportunities just waiting for their time. May this year become a time for bold goals, confident decisions, and successful steps that lead you to your dreams. May your work bring you joy, your trades result in profits, and each day fill you with happiness and a sense of progress.

We wholeheartedly wish you health, inner peace, energy, and the support of loved ones. May the New Year bring warmth, a festive atmosphere, and countless happy moments that you will cherish.

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The main hit fell on the two largest products. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust lost $234 million, and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lost $201 million. Together, those two funds accounted for more than two-thirds of the day's outflow, indicating that large retail and advisory channels — not small niche products — did most of the selling. Notably, the trigger was not weakness in the asset itself but questions about custody.

Ethereum was bruised even harder. Another $156 million exited spot ETH funds on Friday, bringing October outflows to a record $1.61 billion. The prior monthly record was $1.42 billion in November 2025 — so the new record exceeds it by nearly $190 million. As a result, the funds have entirely lost the inflows accumulated since the start of the year. That makes it harder for Ethereum to rely on institutional demand that helped it hold ground during spring and summer.

Clearly, the fund flows so far confirm the market caution traders have been warning about. Today's Bitcoin bounce around $78,000 is not supported by inflows, so it's insufficient to signal a reversal.

Bitcoin

Crypto is trading in a narrow corridor between immediate support at $77,800 and resistance at $78,400, so the plan centers on two mirrored directions with full scenarios for breakouts and rejections. For long positions, I consider two options. If price closes above $78,400 while remaining above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero, the target is $79,000 — take profit there and allow for a short on a pullback. If a downside breakout fails and price rebounds from $77,800 after a false break, buy to first target $78,400 and then on to the same outer target of $79,000.

For short positions, the scenarios are combined into one. A close below $77,800, with the 50-day MA above price and the Awesome below zero, opens a short targeting $77,000. If an upside breakout does not hold and price is rejected at $78,400, sell toward $77,800 and then lower to $77,000.

Ethereum

The logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale, with immediate support at $2,276 and resistance at $2,291. Buy on a close above $2,291, provided price is above the 50-day MA and the Awesome is above zero, with a target at $2,305 — take profit there and consider a short on the pullback. If a false downside break fails and the price bounces from $2,276, buy at $2,291 and then $2,305.

Sell on a close below $2,276, provided the moving average is above the price and the Awesome is below zero, targeting $2,250. If an upside breakout fails and price is rejected at $2,291, sell to $2,276 and then to $ 2,250. Both indicators are used as filters to avoid false moves, not as independent reasons to enter early; trades are taken only after price confirms the specified levels.

On this wonderful winter day, when the world seems to pause in anticipation of a miracle, we sincerely wish you true festive warmth. May your home be filled with comfort, harmony, and joy, and may every moment glow with the light that makes Christmas truly special.

May the scent of pine and the sparkle of lights bring long-awaited reunions, heartfelt conversations, and the feeling that the best is yet to come. We hope you find a peaceful escape from the daily hustle and bustle, and that your heart is filled with peace and inspiration.

We wish you confidence to pursue your goals, exciting achievements, and new horizons. Thank you for being part of our big InstaForex family — your support and trust make us stronger every day.

Merry Christmas!

Best wishes, InstaForex.

Analysis:

In the short term, the European currency's major pair is following a downward wave structure that began in mid-August of this year. A corrective pattern has been developing within this structure over the past month, and its final segment is still missing. The wave extremes form a shifting flat pattern on the chart.

Forecast:

Over the coming week, the euro is expected to trade predominantly sideways. A decline and brief pressure on support are possible over the next couple of days. A reversal and the beginning of a price advance may follow, potentially extending to the projected resistance zone. Volatility is expected to increase in the second half of the week.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.1290–1.1340

Support:

• 1.1120–1.1070

Recommendations:

• Buying: May become the primary trading strategy once confirmed signals appear near the support zone.
• Selling: Possible for intraday trading, but with limited potential.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

On the chart of the Japanese yen's major pair, an upward wave that began on August 3 is developing in the short term. An intermediate correction is forming within its final segment (C), which remains incomplete. Prices are trading within a cluster of potential reversal zones across different time frames. The upward move that began on October 23 has reversal potential.

Forecast:

Over the next few days, the price is expected to continue moving predominantly sideways, with a downward bias. The decline may continue until the pair reaches the support zone. After that, the probability of a directional reversal and the beginning of an advance will increase. The projected resistance area represents the most likely upper boundary of the pair's weekly trading range.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 159.70–160.20

Support:

• 156.10–155.60

Recommendations:

• Buying: May become possible once the trader's trading systems generate confirmed reversal signals near the reversal zone.
• Selling: Risky, with limited potential.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The upward wave that has dominated the Japanese yen pair against the British pound since early August has pushed prices toward a strong resistance zone on the weekly time frame. An intermediate correction is developing within the final part of this wave and remains incomplete.

Forecast:

During the first half of the coming week, the pair is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias. The decline is likely to remain within the support zone. Thereafter, activity may increase, and the pair may begin advancing toward the projected resistance levels. The start of this move may coincide with the release of important economic data.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 213.20–213.70

Support:

• 209.20–208.70

Recommendations:

• Selling: Offers limited potential and may be risky. Reducing position size would be safer.
• Buying: May become relevant once trading systems generate reversal signals near the support zone.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

An upward wave pattern has been developing in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar since August 21. The middle, corrective part of this structure has entered its final stage. Prices are approaching the upper boundary of a potential reversal zone on the higher time frame. No signals of an imminent reversal are visible on the chart at the time of analysis.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, the pair is expected to trade sideways with an upward bias. An upward retracement may continue until prices reach the boundaries of the resistance zone. Closer to the weekend, a reversal and a resumption of the downward move may develop. A breakout beyond the range defined by the opposing zones during the week is unlikely.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 1.4070–1.4120

Support:

• 1.3870–1.3820

Recommendations:

• Selling: May be considered with reduced position sizes after the trader's trading systems generate appropriate signals near the support zone.
• Buying: Risky due to limited potential.

NZD/USD

Brief Analysis:

The downward wave in the New Zealand dollar's major pair, which remains incomplete, began on August 21. A countertrend correction in the form of a shifting flat pattern has been developing within this structure since early October. At the time of analysis, the wave does not appear complete. The price is near the upper boundary of a potential reversal zone on the daily time frame.

Weekly Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, the pair is expected to continue moving downward until it reaches the support zone. After that, price fluctuations may shift into a sideways range. Closer to the weekend, volatility is likely to increase, potentially leading to a reversal and the beginning of an upward move. When the direction changes, a brief break below the lower boundary of the projected support zone cannot be ruled out.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 0.5740–0.5790

Support:

• 0.5590–0.5540

Recommendations:

• Buying: Premature until confirmed reversal signals appear.
• Selling: Possible with small position sizes during individual trading sessions, but with limited potential.

Gold

Analysis:

The downward trend that has dominated the gold chart since the beginning of this year has brought the price into an area where potential reversal zones across different time frames converge. The trend wave does not appear complete. Its final segment began last week and remains unfinished.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the coming week, gold is expected to continue trading sideways. An upward move is possible, but it is likely to remain within the projected resistance boundaries. A resumption of the downward trend may follow. A breakout beyond the projected zones during the week is unlikely.

Potential Reversal Zones

Resistance:

• 3,920.0–3,940.0

Support:

• 3,750.0–3,730.0

Recommendations:

• Selling: May become relevant once confirmed reversal signals appear in the resistance zone.
• Buying: Offers limited potential and is unlikely to extend beyond resistance. Reducing position size would be safer.

Explanatory Notes

In Simplified Wave Analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). The latest incomplete wave is analyzed on each time frame. Expected price movements are shown with dashed lines.

Important: The wave algorithm does not take the duration of price movements into account.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on December 24, 2025 - January 2, 2026

December 24, 2025

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex

Early Close at 20:45:

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Early Close at 20:00:

• CFD US Stocks

Early Close at 20:05:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Early Close at 20:15:

Futures Agro:

• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 20:45.

#SPX - Early Close at 20:15.

#INDU - Early Close at 20:15.

#NDX - Early Close at 20:15.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 20:15.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

December 24, 2025 and January 1, 2026

Closed full day:

• Forex

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER
• CFD US Stocks

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #JO
• #CT
• #CC
• #KC
• #SB

Indices:

• #USDX
• #SPX
• #INDU
• #NDX
• #FTSE
• #N225
• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 26, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #HSI
• #DAX
• #SMI
• #SPAIN35
• #AEX25
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50
• #ASX200
• #FRANCE40

December 31, 2025

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #DAX
• #SMI
• #ITALY40
• #STOXX50

Early Close at 21:00:

• Forex
• CFD US Stocks

Spot metals:

• GOLD
• SILVER

Futures Metals:

• #PLF
• #PAF
• #HG
• #GC
• #SI

Futures Energy:

• #XBZ
• #QM
• #CL
• #QG
• #NG
• #XRB
• #HO

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Futures Goods:

• #LBS
• #CT

Indices:

#USDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#SPX - Early Close at 21:00.

#INDU - Early Close at 21:00.

#NDX - Early Close at 21:00.

#FTSE - Early Close at 14:50.

#N225 - Early Close at 21:00.

#HSI - Early Close at 06:00.

#DAX - Closed full day.

#SMI - Closed full day.

#SPAIN35 - Early Close at 15:00.

#AEX25 - Early Close at 15:00.

#ITALY40 - Closed full day.

#STOXX50 - Closed full day.

#ASX200 - Early Close at 05:30.

#FRANCE40 - Early Close at 15:00.

January 1, 2026

Opening at 16:30:

Futures Agro:

• #ZW
• #ZS
• #ZL
• #ZM
• #ZC
• #HE
• #GF
• #LE

Closed full day:

Indices:

• #SMI
• #ITALY40

Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

Best regards,

InstaForex team

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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In October 2025, InstaForex dramatically changed its trading conditions by introducing four types of accounts: Insta.Standard, Insta.Pro, Insta.Raw, and Insta.Zero.

The updated range of trading accounts offers traders access to the lowest spreads and commissions in the market. The market entry price with InstaForex is 30% lower than that of the nearest competitors. Trading should be convenient and profitable regardless of your experience. That is why we developed new types of accounts that combine minimal costs and flexible conditions for both beginners and experienced traders.

Get to know the InstaForex account range — choose the one that suits you perfectly.

Insta.Standard is the basic account type with no restrictions on the deposit size. It serves as a good tool for starting trading with micro amounts, although it does not provide access to the lowest spreads in the trading account range.

Insta.Pro is a commission-free account type. It allows you to see in real time the full market entry price, which is equal to the spread. It provides similar ultimate market entry price conditions as Insta.Raw and Insta.Zero.

Insta.Raw is an account with minimal spreads and a fixed commission per trade. It provides direct access to real market prices. Costs consist of two parts: the spread (the difference between the buying and selling price) and a commission of 4–5 USD per market lot for major trading instruments.

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Bitcoin's resilience reflects how quickly Binance moved to absorb the hit. The exchange immediately pledged to cover the losses, removing the primary fear — insolvency. Clearly, Binance has the balance sheet capacity to make good on that promise. That helps affected users and supports the token, though it frustrates leveraged sellers who expected a deeper liquidation.

Compare this with 2022: following FTX's collapse, Bitcoin plunged by 19% in three days because that episode involved a move from liquidity shortfall to bankruptcy and clear fraud. Today's event is different. The market treated the Binance incident as an operational shock, not a systemic collapse. TRM Labs has linked this hack — and the Bybit heist in 2025 (~$1.5B) — to the North Korean group "TraderTraitor." While the theft's scale is roughly four times larger this time, the price reaction was far softer.

I view the bounce toward $78,000 as fragile, not a confirmed reversal. The Bybit case is instructive: initial reactions were muted, and a week after that attack, Bitcoin still ended up about 14% lower. Add the US elections on Tuesday, which could influence crypto regulatory legislation, and a return to selling pressure and another test of the $77,000 zone is plausible in the coming days. A confident close above $80,000 will likely require both a favorable electoral outcome for crypto policy and a reduction in option-based demand for protection.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are targeting a move back to $78,500, which would open a path to $79,900 and then toward $81,700. A break above which would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, look for buyer interest near $76,900. A decisive break below that area could push BTC toward $75,300, with a deeper target at about $72,800.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,331 would open a route to $2,398, with a further target around $2,455. A break above this level would confirm strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers should step in near $2,276. A break below that level could drive ETH toward $2,230 and, on extended weakness, to about $2,176.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance zones where the price may either slow or accelerate
• Green: 50-day moving average
• Blue: 100-day moving average
• Light green: 200-day moving average

Crosses of — or the price tests of — these moving averages typically either halt moves or set the next market impulse.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on November 27-28, 2025 due to Thanksgiving day and Black Friday.

November 27:

• Closed full day:

US Shares

#SB.z

#CC.z

#KC.z

#CT.z

#OJ.z

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 18:30

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:30, 23:00 - 00:00

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:00, 23:00 - 00:00

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

November 28:

• Early Close 20:00

#BRENT.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 19:45

GOLD.m

SILVER.m

XCUUSD.m

#CL.z

XPDUSD.m

XPTUSD.m

#NG.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:30

#CT.z

• Early Close 13:00 - 18:00

#OJ.z

• Early Close 01:00 - 13:45, 14:30 - 18:05

#Wheat.z

• Early Close 17:00

#LSU.z

• Early Close 00:00 - 18:15

NASDAQ100.x

SPX500.x

The trigger was an Axios piece reporting that Donald Trump told Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call that he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before deciding whether to resume strikes after Tuesday's midterm elections. According to the outlet, such a strategy worried the Israeli prime minister. I should note that the war began at the end of February with joint strikes by the two countries on Iran.

Later, the signal was confirmed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On Saturday, he said no decision on new strikes has been made and that Trump prefers a diplomatic settlement. That chain of events removed some risk from the price. Previously, the market priced in a scenario where the US would begin a campaign immediately after the elections; now it has received at least a temporary pause. Consumers and Republicans ahead of the vote benefit because cheap oil eases pressure on fuel prices, while exporters and long-position holders lose out.

But it's too early to celebrate. Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered commanders to prepare for a new confrontation with the US and Israel, even though the foreign minister speaks of progress in talks and an Iranian delegation on Saturday discussed the issue with mediators in Qatar. Gulf countries also fear that a new attack could unleash an even more destructive war whose consequences they would have to deal with themselves.

However, the physical market remains tight. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf are close to prewar levels, but refined product supplies are limited. The Middle East conflict, together with intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, pushed fuel prices up, and diesel has surged sharply in the US and Europe. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $105 for December and to $88 on average for next year, citing a high risk of disruptions.

Separately, OPEC+ over the weekend decided to leave quotas unchanged for December after the voluntary cuts ended in September. The decision is mainly symbolic, since hostilities in the Middle East, including in the Red Sea, continue to threaten exports and infrastructure.

I believe a drop below $110 will be short-lived. Before the elections, oil may remain under pressure from diplomatic signals, but the physical shortage of refined products and the risk of renewed strikes do not allow us to speak of a reversal. If after the vote Trump returns to a military scenario or attacks on ships around Hormuz continue, Brent, in my view, will quickly return above $115. A deeper fall is possible only with concrete steps toward a ceasefire, and so far there have been no such statements.

As for the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would target $105, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant target is the $109 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push oil to a $95 low with a prospect of moving to $92.

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What sparked the sell-off was tech earnings. Friday's drop confirmed investors are less tolerant of companies whose core businesses are slowing while AI spending accelerates. Disappointing results at Alphabet and Amazon renewed fears that AI investment is eroding cash flow for the very companies financing it. Defensive stocks and bonds were the beneficiaries; AI leaders suffered. The Cboe volatility index hit its highest level since April, demand for protective options rose, and stock correlations increased — though they remain well below the spikes seen in March when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

Asia's response was mixed. Chinese shares rose after reports that financial regulators will meet banks and brokerages to discuss market support, and the People's Bank, the banking regulator, and the securities regulator are studying credit programs for buybacks. The CSI 300 climbed by 1.3% after a 2.9% drop last week, and the Star 50 tech index gained 2.8%. Conversely, Japan's Kioxia shares tumbled by 17% in Tokyo after a cautious memory-chip forecast, stoking concerns that the AI-driven surge is plateauing.

Morgan Stanley sees several "cleansing events" ahead that may temporarily reduce stock prices and create buying opportunities. Barclays says recent weeks do not mark "the end" of AI trading — this looks like a normal correction, similar to two pullbacks earlier in 2026, after which earnings strength ultimately prevailed.

Geopolitics eased a bit. Brent fell by 2.9% to $110.16/bbl after reports that Donald Trump wants more time for diplomacy with Iran before deciding on renewed strikes after the US elections, which improved risk appetite. Bitcoin rebounded after last week's drop tied to Binance's hack.

I expect US markets to open with a rebound today, but it is too early to call a durable reversal. Friday's hit to semiconductors was deep and will keep volatility elevated into the election and Nvidia's report. If oil stays below $110, the bounce could hold for a few sessions; if diplomatic talks break down, pressure on tech would likely resume.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,633. That would signal upside and open a move toward $7,656. Holding $7,679 would further strengthen bulls' positions. If the price slides amid weaker risk appetite, buyers should defend around $7,607. A break below that level would likely send the index down to $7,574 and open the way to $7,544.

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Oil provided support. It fell after a report that Donald Trump wants to give diplomacy more time before deciding whether to resume strikes on Iran after Tuesday's midterm elections. This chain is important for gold because expensive energy had been feeding inflation, inflation kept Federal Reserve rates high, and high rates made a non-yielding metal less attractive. When oil declines, that pressure eases at least temporarily, benefiting gold buyers and hurting those who bet on further Fed tightening. Recall that last week PCE accelerated to 0.5% for the month, and on Monday Fed officials again spoke of the need for hikes.

The Middle East risk, however, has not disappeared. Trump previously threatened to resume strikes after the election, Tehran threatened a wider response, and several Gulf states fear a new attack could unleash an even more destructive regional war. If the diplomatic phase fails, oil will rise again, and with it pressure on gold via rate-expectation channels.

The second threat comes from equities. Friday's global sell-off in technology stocks forced investors to sell gold to cover losses in other assets. Today in Asia, the sell-off eased: regional equities fell less than U.S. ones, and U.S. index futures turned higher, which helped the metal. But the correlation remains, and a new wave of tech-sector selling could again turn gold into a liquidity source.

A separate story involves funds. Almost 150 tonnes bought into gold ETFs since mid-July are now mostly underwater. If funds begin exiting positions, that will add pressure to the price, and long-term investors will have to decide whether they are willing to endure the losses.

I believe the rebound will be limited until the fate of the Iran scenario is decided. Tuesday's midterms and Trump's decisions afterward will be the main guide for oil and, therefore, for gold. If diplomacy is given time, the metal can hold around $3,900 and partially recover losses on dip buying. If strikes resume, oil will move up and gold, in my view, will return to testing the year's lows.

As for the technical picture for gold, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $3,906. That would allow targeting $3,954, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant target is the $4,001 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to seize control of $3,849. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push Gold to a $3,802 low with the prospect of moving to $3,756.

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The price test at 157.38 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, prompting dollar purchases against the yen. However, the rise amounted to only about 20 pips.

Already today demand for the dollar has returned, and the yen began the week by weakening against the U.S. currency. The main trigger was hawkish statements by two Federal Reserve representatives. Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed called for another rate hike in the near term, although as recently as October he spoke of hikes over six to nine months. Tom Barkin of the Richmond Fed added that the policy direction is already clear and the question is only the pace. These words strengthened expectations of another Fed move against the backdrop of core PCE in September at 3.6% versus a 2% target, and the dollar received additional support against the yen.

The yen, however, enters the week with decent backing. On Friday, the Bank of Japan kept the rate at 1.25%, as economists expected. The central bank said core inflation has reached the 2% target for the first time, and at the press conference Kazuo Ueda emphasized the risk of overshooting the target and said anchoring inflation expectations near it remains the main issue. He did not name timing for the next hike, but many traders believe a move could occur as early as December. Today's Japanese manufacturing PMI for October was 53.3 points, exactly matching the forecast and the prior value, so it had almost no effect on the exchange rate. Among fresh news from Japan, the government raised 250 billion yen today, and demand for bonds proved resilient. Stable demand for Japanese bonds shows that domestic investors still willingly buy the country's paper even amid rising global yields. I believe that while the Fed speaks in a hawkish tone, USD/JPY will find support from the dollar, but the BOJ's recognition of achieving the inflation target and the prospect of a December hike will prevent the yen from weakening too quickly.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 157.88 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 158.40 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.40, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.66 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 157.88 and 158.40.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.66 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers is 157.12, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.88 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 157.66 and 157.12.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

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The price test at 1.3416 came as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming the right entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target area of 1.3383.

Statements by US policymakers supported the dollar at the end of last week, but the pound held up under pressure. The Bank of England meeting on November 5, with an expected rate hike, helps the pound, although new Federal Reserve arguments are increasingly boosting demand for the dollar. Today the pound may receive support in the first half of the day after UK data. The manufacturing PMI for October is expected. The forecast is 52.8 points, the same as the previous value, and it should be compared with the data from prior months. In September, the index was 51.9, while the preliminary October estimate showed 52.8 against the expected 51.8, meaning British industry moved to a noticeably higher level. If the final figure beats economists' forecasts, the pound will gladly return to last week's high.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3425 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 1.3457 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3457, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). Expect pound growth today only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3399 price while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3425 and 1.3457.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3399 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3373, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3425 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3399 and 1.3373.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

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InstaForex took part as a Diamond Sponsor, presenting its own booth #81, which became one of the most visited at the expo. The company’s large international team — including English-, Hindi-, and Arabic-speaking managers — consulted visitors, introduced new company products and innovative services, and shared exclusive offers.

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The price test at 1.1191 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair moved toward the target area of 1.1160.

Friday was a decline for the euro. The reason was the words of two Federal Reserve representatives, spoken one after the other, and both remarks were noticeably harsher than what the market had heard after the October 28 meeting. Eurozone GDP also disappointed, as did Germany's inflation data. Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed said rates need to rise in the near term because inflation remains too high and will not fall on its own. Tom Barkin of the Richmond Fed completed the picture. In his view, policy direction is already clear; only the pace remains to be discussed. The euro in this story depended on two factors at once. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged last week; the main rate remained at 2.65% and the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the market still prices in one final hike to 2.75% in December. Moreover, as I noted above, eurozone GDP in the third quarter was not that strong.

The first half of today promises to be busy for the euro, although forecasts do not imply surprises. The German manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October is expected at 54.2 points, unchanged from the previous period, and for the eurozone the forecast is 52.4 points, also unchanged. These figures suggest the region's industry remains stable amid expensive energy and high rates. For the market, other factors matter more. If the actual readings are higher, the euro will receive support because this will strengthen expectations of an ECB rate hike to 2.75% in December, while a weak result would, by contrast, undermine that logic.

Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will speak, and his words will be closely watched. I recall his position at the IMF meeting on October 16. Nagel said that after two rate hikes, further steps cannot be ruled out if the situation does not change, and he acknowledged that the market prices in a 25-basis-point hike in December. I believe that if the figures for Germany and the eurozone match forecasts and Nagel maintains a hawkish tone, EUR/USD can continue rising, but without a positive surprise, the recovery will be slow.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1200 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1232. At 1.1232, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expecting euro growth today is possible only after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today if it tests 1.1183 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1200 and 1.1232.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1183 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1157, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of 1.1200 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1183 and 1.1157.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

Our Booth 81 attracted a wide audience: the InstaForex team — including English-, Arabic-, and Hindi-speaking managers — provided consultations to more than 700 clients. We introduced our new products, such as the x10 bonus, ultra-low spreads on gold and currency pairs, and gave away $1,000 certificates as a token of appreciation to our guests.

Particular attention was drawn to the company representative’s presentation, “Trend forecasts from InstaForex 2025,” which highlighted key market trends and forecasts for the upcoming year.

The highlight of our participation was winning the award for “Lowest Spreads Broker of the Year” — a recognition of our commitment to offering the best trading conditions.

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Tom Barkin of the Richmond Fed added that the question now is not the direction of policy but the pace, and that the boom in investments in artificial intelligence is accelerating inflation. These words came after a week when the dollar was losing ground because weak household incomes and a low savings rate weighed on the currency. Now the picture has changed, and the dollar has received new support. The background for such statements has been set. The overall personal consumption expenditures index in September was 3.6% against the Fed's 2% target, and at the October 28 meeting the rate was kept in the 3.75–4.00% range with a vote of ten to two.

The pound is in a tougher position in this situation because market attention is focused on the Bank of England meeting on November 5, where a rise from 3.75% is expected. But even that expectation does not offset the dollar's strengthening, which rests on the Fed's hawkish rhetoric.

Today the UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October will be released for the pound, and forecasts expect 52.8 points, exactly the same as the preliminary estimate. To understand how important this is, it helps to recall where the figure came from. In September, the index was 51.9 points, and the preliminary October estimate released on October 23 came in much stronger than the expected 51.8 points, at 52.8. This survey of purchasing managers shows whether manufacturing is growing, and a value above 50 indicates expansion. An increase of almost a full point in a month was notable, and now the market needs confirmation that it was not accidental. I believe strong industrial figures can help the pair quickly recover losses, and if the result matches the forecast, it will remain in a zone of cautious waiting.

Momentum

For the pound, the price is now at 1.3402, and only two pips remain to the upper breakout level at 1.3404. That is very close, so use caution, since a first touch is not considered a breakout. If the pair consolidates above, it may reach 1.3430 and then 1.3467. Such a move requires strong UK industrial figures and a calm dollar. Below the reference is 1.3374, twenty-eight pips from the price. Overnight, the pair fell to 1.3378 but did not reach the level. A downward breakout with confirmation could lead to 1.3346 and 1.3324, and this direction looks more likely if the dollar continues to rise after remarks by Musalem and Barkin. While the pair is holding at the upper level, I am looking at both scenarios, but the very close distance to 1.3404 requires patience.

Mean Reversion

For the pound, the upper reference 1.3411 sits seven pips above the breakout point 1.3404, so special caution is needed. If price passes 1.3404, reaches 1.3411, and confidently consolidates above, this is a breakout, and selling is not allowed. But if it briefly poked above, failed to hold, and quickly returned below 1.3404, the reversal works, and I consider selling with a stop above the highest point of the failed attempt. Since the price is currently two pips from the breakout level, I would skip the first reaction in this zone and wait for clarity.

The lower reference, 1.3384, sits ten pips above the breakout level of 1.3374. Here, I look for long positions if price briefly falls below 1.3384, finds no continuation, and returns above. I place the stop under the lowest point of the failed attempt. But if it passes 1.3384 and calmly holds below, then movement toward the breakout level 1.3374 begins, and buying there is not allowed. Overnight, the pair fell almost to this zone and bounced, so buyers showed up here. The dollar is pressing now, so I expect any rebound to be modest, and I would especially protect stops around the release of business activity indices.

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The key speech was by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem. He said the Fed needs to raise rates again in the near term because inflation remains too high and is unlikely to decline without additional action. In his words, policy still stimulates the economy and financial conditions remain loose, so an earlier hike will reduce risks. It is notable how quickly his tone changed. On October 8, Musalem had said that rates should rise over the next six to nine months, and at that time he did not support a move at the October meeting. Now he is effectively demanding that step, which means the timing, in his view, has been significantly shortened.

The second voice was the president of the Richmond Fed, Tom Barkin. He said the direction of policy is already clear; the question is only the pace. In addition, he stated that the boom in investments in artificial intelligence is strengthening inflation from the demand side — that is, when money is spent faster than the economy can produce goods. I should remind you that he does not have a vote this year, but the market still considers his opinion. In October, Barkin already warned that such processes would have to be paid for at some point —and when, nobody knows. Now he says the same thing but with a more practical conclusion.

I remind you that at the October 28 meeting the rate was kept in the 3.75–4.00% range, and two committee members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted for a hike. Kevin Warsh did not give a clear answer about December at that time, and now two of his colleagues have effectively hinted at where the committee may move.

Today market attention will shift to Europe. Manufacturing purchasing managers' indices for October will be released. This is a survey of purchasing managers, where a value above 50 points indicates growth and below 50 indicates contraction. The forecast for Germany is 54.2 points, the same as a month earlier, and for the eurozone as a whole, 52.4 points, also unchanged from the previous value. Economists do not expect changes, and that is a good sign, since the indices remain noticeably above the 50 mark. After strong eurozone GDP in the third quarter, such figures are doubly important. Any downward deviation would raise questions about how sustainable this growth is, while an upside surprise would add arguments for the rate-hike camp.

No less interesting will be the speech by the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. He last spoke on October 16 in Bangkok at the IMF meeting. Then he said that the European Central Bank had raised key rates twice and, if the situation does not change, further steps cannot be ruled out. He noted that the market expects another 25-basis-point hike in December and that he does not see a new financial crisis in Europe. After the ECB's decision to hold rates and news about Christine Lagarde's departure in February, his words carry additional weight, since Nagel is named among possible candidates for the head of the central bank.

Momentum

The euro is now at 1.1186, fourteen pips above the lower breakout level and nineteen below the upper one. From below, the reference is 1.1172. During the night, the pair fell below that mark to 1.1155, but it couldn't hold and returned higher, so the first touch didn't become a breakout, and buyers were already showing up here. A breakdown with confirmation could lead to 1.1138 and 1.1108, and such a scenario is possible if Nagel's speech disappoints and the dollar continues to rise after Musalem's and Barkin's remarks. From above 1.1205 is in play. A breakout pushes the euro to 1.1231, and then to 1.1254. For this move, strong European business activity indices are needed, and economists' flat forecasts would be a pleasant surprise. For now I would give a slight edge to growth, but hawkish Fed statements leave the dollar chances.

Mean Reversion

For the euro, the upper reference 1.1197 stands eight pips below the breakout point 1.1205. This is needed when price stretches upward but runs out of steam before reaching the level. If the pair rises to 1.1197, finds no continuation, and falls back, I consider selling with a stop above the highest point of the failed attempt. But if it calmly passed 1.1197 and approached 1.1205, the reversal is canceled, and instead the upside breakout scenario begins to work.

The lower reference 1.1163 stands nine pips below the breakout level 1.1172. Here, I look for long positions if price briefly drops below 1.1163, finds no continuation, and returns above 1.1172; I place the stop under the lowest point of the failed attempt. But if it passes 1.1163 and calmly stays below, this is the development of a downward breakout, and buying is not allowed. The night picture actually showed a similar attempt: the pair dropped to 1.1155 but immediately returned. At the moment of the release of the European indices and Nagel's speech, I would protect stops, because the reaction can jump over any level.

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Since April 2009, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has rarely outperformed the cap-weighted index by as much as it has in October. The gap between the equal-weighted index and the Nasdaq 100 helps explain the structural shifts happening in equities today. In prior sell-offs, both the tech index and both versions of the broad index fell in tandem. Today, we see divergence.

Dynamics of Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Equal Weight Indices

This market move is not primarily about macro prints or Fed policy. It is a rotation — money leaving mega-cap techs into names that can benefit from continued US economic strength.

Politics is accelerating the process. Rising odds of a Democratic victory in the midterms are putting pressure on the USB-linked basket (a proxy for Republican-favored equities), which is heavily weighted toward tech names. Fears that a blue wave would bring tougher AI regulation and obstruct Trump's pro-growth agenda (including tax cuts) have triggered the selling.

S&P 500 vs. USB basket dynamics

Nevertheless, bulls remain optimistic. Morgan Stanley notes a cluster of downside risks — the midterms, stress from rising AI expenditure, and liquidity tightening — that could knock the S&P 500 about 9% from record highs. Yet their message is also pragmatic: investors should not panic — buying the dips once the noise subsides will be the rational move. In their view, US equities can still perform well over time regardless of midterm outcomes.

Wells Fargo is more cautious. The bank points to a fall in corporate earnings growth from 32% in Q2 to 26% in Q3 amid higher rates, tariff pressures, and expensive oil. While still historically elevated, the slowdown in earnings growth is a warning sign for the S&P 500.

The key risk event remains the US midterms. Will markets revert to the pattern of "sell the rumor, buy the fact"?

Technically, the S&P 500 failed to hold fair value on the daily chart, which invited short positions as expected. Immediate resistance sits near 7,645. As long as the price remains below that level, the bias favors selling the broad index.

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The main intrigue this week centers on the US midterm elections. The first preliminary figures will be available by Wednesday morning, but the final ballot counts can traditionally take weeks. Meanwhile, American voters are setting turnout records — more than 20% of all registered voters have already cast ballots during the four days of early voting. The midterm record from 2022 has officially been broken. According to sources, in 27 states that keep strict party registration data, there is a notable skew:

• Democrats account for 44% of early ballots;
• Republicans account for 32%;
• the Democrats' current net lead is 12 percentage points

But it is too early to write off the Republicans. Historically, conservative voters prefer to cast their ballots in person on Election Day itself. On prediction markets such as Polymarket, the odds are hot: the probability of Democrats winning control of the Senate is priced at 69%, while control of the House is almost fully expected to go to the Democratic Party. The dominant backdrop to this vote is deep economic strain on households. Bloomberg reports that today exactly half of the average American family's expenditures go to housing and food alone — the worst cost-of-living record in 15 years. Voters are voting with their wallets.

Why is Wall Street betting on a legislative deadlock?

Let's be blunt: the United States' baseline economic policy is unlikely to change radically after the elections. The Iran conflict, sweeping trade tariffs and the giant federal budget deficit will remain regardless of the Capitol's makeup. But for portfolio investors, the balance of power matters. A divided Congress will inevitably trigger a brutal fight over the federal debt ceiling in 2027. Financial markets must therefore price three key scenarios:

• Democrats triumphant (control of both chambers). A negative scenario for equities. Investors would price in a sharp rise in regulatory scrutiny, deal reviews and higher tax risks for corporations. At the same time, Treasury yields and the dollar would fall on expectations of tighter fiscal policy and slower growth.
• Republican victory. A double hit to Wall Street. Markets fear a new wave of protectionist trade measures and unpredictable tariffs from Trump. That would stoke inflation fears. As a result, Treasury yields and the US dollar would rise sharply as traders begin pricing in further Fed hikes in 2027.
• Legislative gridlock — Democratic House and Republican Senate. The most comfortable and bullish outcome for Wall Street. Political paralysis would tie both parties' hands. No sweeping tax reforms, fiscal overreach or aggressive deregulation would get through. Political uncertainty would ease, traders would return to earnings season, and the dollar and government yields would soften slightly as Congress blocks the most radical tariff moves.

Did big tech establish its own "floor"?

While Washington prepares to count votes, Wall Street's tech sector is playing out its own drama. Big tech stocks have plunged below the levels at which these companies recently raised huge sums to build data centers and buy chips. Investors no longer believe in endless growth on the single word "AI":

• Intel — shares have collapsed 33% below the price of its August raise, when the chipmaker raised $23 billion. The culprit is severe logistical delays in delivering critical components for server clusters.
• Alphabet — shares trade 21–22% below the price of June fundraising tied to its $85 billion investment program after a disappointing quarterly report and negative free cash flow.
• Meta — stock fell below the price of its recent $25 billion placement closed just days earlier.

In total, offerings exceeding $133 billion are now underwater. Wall Street is flooded with doubts: will these colossal capital expenditures ever pay off? Does this mark the end of blindly funding any project with the "AI" label? As a final worrying note on rising tech risk, the financial world received a cybersecurity alarm: the FBI formally accused a North Korean state-linked hacking group, "TraderTraitor," of an unprecedented attack on a crypto exchange.

As a result, some $6 billion in assets were stolen from Binance. US agencies have unveiled the laundering chain:

• Stolen crypto is rapidly converted primarily into Ethereum tokens.
• Funds then pass through decentralized liquidity protocols (DeFi) and unregulated instant-swap services to erase digital traces.

The FBI and the IRS issued emergency guidance to private fintech firms, trading venues and validators: addresses associated with TraderTraitor must be immediately and comprehensively blocked. This precedent highlights how vulnerable modern digital infrastructure remains in the face of sophisticated next-generation attacks.

Markets enter November in a crossfire: a voter verdict looms, tech giants' resilience is being reassessed, and geopolitical risks are rising. No respite in sight.

November 2

November 2, 01:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 52.0 / actual: 49.6 / consensus: 49.7 / AUD/USD – up

S&P Global's September survey recorded a shift of Australia's manufacturing sector into contraction: the composite PMI fell to 49.6, weighed down by weakening customer demand and the first decline in new orders in three months. Buyers' caution was driven by:

• the general inflationary backdrop
• falling market confidence
• high borrowing costs

Firms were forced to cut commodity purchases amid ongoing disruptions in maritime logistics. At the same time, rising costs for energy, transport and labour accelerated producer-price inflation, pushing factories to pass on costs in their selling prices. The final October read is expected to show a modest improvement in the activity indicator, which will support the Australian dollar.

November 2, 01:00 / Australia / Melbourne Institute inflation gauge (Oct) / prev: 4.8% / actual: 2.8% / consensus: – / AUD/USD – volatile

The Melbourne Institute's leading inflation gauge recorded a sharp slowdown in price growth to 2.8% from 4.8% a month earlier. The monthly indicator, an early signal for official quarterly statistics, reflected a significant easing of price pressure across key categories of consumer goods and services. In the absence of a consensus forecast, the release could trigger elevated volatility in the Australian dollar.

November 2, 03:30 / Australia / Building approvals (Sep) / prev: 10.9% / actual: 10.3% / consensus: -4.7% / AUD/USD – down

August's building approvals in Australia showed a moderate slowdown in the growth rate to 10.3%, remaining well above the long-run historical norm of 2.5%. Recent strength was supported by completion of previously approved development plans. However, investor interest in new projects continues to be restrained by:

• tight lending conditions
• higher construction-material costs

The September release is expected to show a sharp fall in developer activity into deep contraction, which will weigh on the Australian dollar.

November 2, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 54.9 / actual: 54.1 / consensus: 53.3 / USD/JPY – up

Japan's manufacturing sector recorded a slowdown in growth in September: the PMI stood at 54.1, reflecting the most muted rise in output and sales volumes in recent months. Nevertheless, Japanese firms:

• maintained moderate hiring and
• stepped up purchases of commodities

This led to near four-year highs in inventories as companies prepared for incoming orders. The final October read is expected to show further cooling of the manufacturing impulse and will weigh on the yen.

November 2, 04:45 / China / RatingDog manufacturing PMI (Oct) / prev: 51.5 / actual: 52.1 / consensus: 52.0 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's manufacturing PMI from RatingDog rose to 52.1 in September, the fastest expansion since mid-spring, driven by a synchronized pickup in domestic and foreign demand

Factories ramped up production and hiring to meet the order inflow, while a four-month surge in commodity input prices prompted firms to raise selling prices slightly. Business optimism about the outlook improved, though it remained below long-term norms. The October consensus foresees a slight slowdown in the rate of expansion, which will weigh on Brent crude and push USD/CNY higher.

November 2, 08:30 / Australia / RBA commodity-price index (Oct) / prev: 16.2% / actual: 15.5% / consensus: 15.1% / AUD/USD – down

The RBA's September commodity-price index slowed to 15.5%, a six-month low. Downward pressure came from:

• cheaper iron ore;
• alumina;
• copper concentrates

These declines outweighed positive moves in agriculture and some non-ferrous metals. In AUD terms, the export commodity basket rose 6.6%, reflecting a moderate exchange-rate effect. Analysts expect further easing in commodity price growth in October, which points to downside risk for the Aussie.

November 2, 10:00 / Germany / Retail sales (Sep) / prev: -2.2% / actual: -0.4% / consensus: -0.3% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's August retail sales fell 0.4%, substantially moderating the pace of decline from July's 2.2% drop. Although consumer spending still lags the long-run average of roughly 0.5%, the slowdown in the contraction of retail turnover indicates households are gradually adapting to current price conditions. The September consensus expects some improvement, which is positive for the euro.

November 2, 11:55 / Germany / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 54.3 / actual: 53.9 / consensus: 54.2 / EUR/USD – up Germany's October manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2, marking a two-month high and confirming a sustained improvement in industrial conditions:

• Expansion of the overall order book continued thanks to steady inflows of foreign contracts
• Job cuts at factories slowed to the lowest rate in more than three years
• Output growth showed some local moderation

Producer-price inflation accelerated to highs not seen since May due to higher oil, commodity and component costs, cooling six-month expectations among manufacturers. Final confirmation of the industrial upturn in Europe's largest economy will support the euro.

November 2, 12:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 52.7 / actual: 52.9 / consensus: 52.4 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone's final manufacturing PMI for October eased to 52.4, a three-month low, reflecting a modest reduction in employment after two months of continuous growth. Amid renewed Middle East tensions, European factories sharply accelerated precautionary purchases of materials, causing near-four-year highs in commodity inventories and the largest lengthening of lead times since the start of summer. Surging costs for energy, fuel and transport triggered a sharp rise in input-cost inflation, exceeding annual averages. The next release is expected to show a slowdown in the bloc's industrial expansion, which will put pressure on the euro.

November 2, 12:30 / UK / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 51.9 / actual: 51.7 / consensus: 52.8 / GBP/USD – up

UK manufacturing showed the most significant improvement in business conditions since late spring in October. The composite PMI strengthened to 52.8 thanks to:

• the strongest output expansion in two years
• an inflow of new orders

Despite locally restrained hiring, shortages of electronic components and maritime logistics disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis — which have depleted inventories for a fifth consecutive month — British manufacturers' optimism has firmed on the back of prospects for large defence and AI-related infrastructure investments. Expected acceleration in manufacturing activity will support the pound.

November 2, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 53.5 / actual: 53.0 / consensus: 51.5 / USD/CAD – up

Canada's manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.5 in September, the weakest reading in six months. Headwinds included:

• a prolonged fall in export orders due to weaker US demand;
• rising trade frictions with the US; and
• border delays and logistical disruptions

Rising energy prices and material shortages pushed producer-cost inflation to its highest since mid-2022, forcing firms to draw down inventories and weighing on business confidence. Slower industrial expansion will pressure the Canadian dollar.

November 2, 16:45 / US / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 53.9 / actual: 55.9 / consensus: 56.0 / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up

The final S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US in October registered 56.0, marking the most confident improvement in manufacturing conditions since May 2022. Although output growth and order levels showed some moderation, the indicators retain a substantial buffer. Factory hiring accelerated to the strongest pace since spring 2012. Firms continued to rebuild commodity inventories amid the largest lengthening of supplier lead times in two years. Confirmation of robust industrial dynamics and firm labour demand will support the US dollar.

November 2, 17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct) / prev: 54.6 / actual: 54.5 / consensus: 54.6 / USDX – up

The ISM survey for September confirmed continued expansion in US manufacturing: the PMI held at 54.5, supported by a synchronized pickup in new orders and hiring. The main strain for firms remained a sharp surge in the commodity prices index to nearly 78, reflecting higher metals, fuel and import tariffs; together with supply delays from the Middle East, this has increased caution among managers. The October report consensus expects manufacturing momentum to strengthen, which will support the dollar.

November 2, 17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing employment (Oct) / prev: 51.2 / actual: 52.7 / consensus: 53.0 / USDX – up The ISM employment subindex for manufacturing rose to 52.7 in September, signaling a return of labour demand. The pickup in hiring was led by:

• high-tech sectors (including computer and electronic products)
• transportation equipment manufacturing (offsetting weaker hiring elsewhere)

Analysts expect further acceleration in manufacturing employment in October, which will boost the dollar.

November 3

November 3, 06:30 / 07:30 / Australia / RBA rate decision & press conference / prev: 4.35% / actual: 4.60% / consensus: 4.85% / AUD/USD – up

The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, the highest borrowing cost since 2011 and the fourth tightening round this year. The decision was justified by:

The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, the highest borrowing cost since 2011 and the fourth tightening round this year. The decision was justified by:

• escalation in the Middle East that disrupted oil supplies and pushed up global energy prices and
• frenzied global demand for AI-related components

Despite cooling consumer spending, falling housing prices in major cities and tighter mortgage lending, high capacity utilisation and businesses' willingness to pass higher costs through to prices kept the board firmly hawkish. Expectations of further tightening will support the Australian dollar.

November 3, 18:00 / US / JOLTs job openings (Sep) / prev: 7.335m / actual: 7.079m / consensus: 7.130m / USDX – up

The JOLTs report showed job openings fell by 256k in August to a five-month low of 7.079m. Cooling labour demand was notable in:

• professional and business services (-119k);
• healthcare (-115k);
• manufacturing (-54k);
• construction (-48k)

At the same time, hirings (5.2m) and total separations (5.1m) remained balanced, indicating no large-scale layoffs. Renewed corporate hiring will support the dollar.

November 3, 18:00 / US / JOLTs quits (Sep) / prev: 3.089m / actual: 3.066m / consensus: 3.050m / USDX – down

Quits fell to 3.07m in August, keeping the quits rate at 1.9% — near lows not seen since 2020. Declines in wholesale trade and education offset a local rise in durable-goods sectors, reflecting households' caution amid:

• elevated inflation and
• high borrowing costs

Reduced labour mobility signals lower worker confidence, which will weigh on the dollar.

November 3, 18:00 / US / Factory orders (Sep m/m) / prev: 0.8% / actual: 0.1% / consensus: 1.2% / USDX – up

New orders to US manufacturers rose a modest 0.1% in August, slowing sharply after July's gain. Small increases in orders for electrical equipment, primary metals and machinery supported the nondurable goods segment (+0.3%). A pickup in new industrial contracts will support the greenback.

November 3, 18:00 / US / RCM/TIPP economic optimism index (Nov, leading) / prev: 45.6 / actual: 46.8 / consensus: 46.2 / USDX – down

The RealClearMarkets/TIPP consumer-sentiment barometer rose to 46.8 in October, the highest since spring, despite turbulence in the Treasury market. All subindices improved:

• six-month outlook rose to 42.7;
• views on personal finances improved to 53.4;
• confidence in federal economic policy rose to 44.4 (reflecting household adaptation to current conditions)

Stronger consumer confidence will weigh on the dollar.

November 4

November 4, 00:30 / US / API crude inventories (weekly) / prev: -4.93m / actual: -2.031m / Brent – volatile

API reported a draw of more than 2m barrels of commercial crude for the week to Oct. 23, defying expectations of a build. Additional tightening came from draws at Cushing (-453k bbl) and a drop in U.S. daily production to 13.269m b/d, partly offset by increases in motor-fuel stocks:

• gasoline +2.39m bbl
• distillates +380k bbl

Lack of an official consensus and divergent flows between crude and product markets may raise Brent volatility.

November 4, 03:30 / Australia / Business activity index (Oct) / prev: -1.6 / actual: -24.2 / consensus: -24.9 / AUD/USD – down

September survey showed a sharp collapse in Australian business sentiment to -24.2 due to mounting uncertainty, credit constraints and a second wave of fuel and refinery price rises.

• Sales and revenue plunged, dragging the business activity index down 28.5 points to -31.0;
• New orders fell 22.4 points;
• Employment returned to contraction

A critical gap between input costs and selling prices (43.2) squeezed margins and dropped capacity utilisation to 77.2%. Continued corporate stress will pressure the AUD.

November 4, 01:00 / Australia / S&P Global services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 53.2 / actual: 51.2 / consensus: 47.8 / AUD/USD – down

Australia's services sector slid into contraction in October for the first time since May. The composite PMI fell to 47.8 amid a sharp slowdown in new client inflows. Weak demand was driven by:

• falling market confidence
• high borrowing costs
• ongoing rises in energy, wage and transport costs

Firms passed higher costs to consumers despite hiring to clear backlogs. Confirmation of a services slowdown will weigh on the AUD.

November 4, 04:45 / China / RatingDog services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 51.4 / actual: 51.6 / consensus: 51.5 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's services PMI rose to 51.6 in September, the highest since early summer, supported by:

• improved domestic demand
• faster growth in new export contracts

Service firms increased employment for the fifth consecutive month but rising labour, input and energy costs pushed service-sector input-cost inflation to a 4.5-year high. Any softening in China's services momentum will pressure Brent and push USD/CNY higher.

November 4, 11:55 / Germany / S&P Global services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 49.7 / actual: 52.9 / consensus: 51.7 / EUR/USD – down

Germany's services PMI held at 52.9 in September, confirming a return to expansion. New orders stalled as clients delayed budget approvals, leading to renewed declines in unfinished work. Job creation continued for a third month, but hiring remained muted, and input-cost inflation eased thanks to lower motor-fuel prices. A slowdown in services will pressure the euro.

November 4, 12:00 / Eurozone / S&P Global services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 51.6 / actual: 53.0 / consensus: 51.7 / EUR/USD – down

Eurozone services activity peaked at 53.0 in September before facing slowing momentum. With France's services slipping toward contraction and weaker new-order inflows elsewhere, job creation fell to a five-month low. Lower input-cost inflation accompanied easing pressure on manufacturing capacity, but business expectations weakened. A slowdown in services will weigh on the euro.

November 4, 12:30 / UK / S&P Global services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 52.5 / actual: 52.1 / consensus: 53.1 / GBP/USD – up The UK services survey recorded continued expansion in October, boosted by:

• corporate AI investments
• demand for tech services

New orders growth supported renewed hiring despite management caution and high costs. A pick-up in services activity will support the pound.

November 4, 13:00 / Eurozone / CPI preliminary (Oct) / prev: 3.2% / actual: 3.8% / consensus: 3.9% / EUR/USD – up

Eurozone annual CPI jumped to 3.8% in September, the highest since autumn 2023. Key drivers were a large rise in energy tariffs (+18.9%), higher services (+3.2%) and food (+1.3%), pushing core inflation to 2.5%. Price pressure spread across major economies, lifting rates in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy (to 4.2%) and Spain (to 5.0%). Continued high inflation will increase ECB tightening pressure and support the euro.

November 4, 16:15 / US / ADP employment change (Oct) / prev: 36k / actual: 90k / consensus: 65k / USDX – down

ADP's private sector employment estimate rose to 90k in September, reversing three months of slowdown. Job gains were concentrated in:

• healthcare
• education (+55k)
• hospitality (+22k)

This offset declines in finance and professional services. Stable payroll gains alongside steady wages show no sharp corporate labour-market deterioration. Slower private-sector hiring would weigh on the dollar.

November 4, 16:30 / Canada / trade balance (Sep) / prev: 0.79bn CAD / actual: 4.20bn CAD / consensus: 3.70bn CAD / USD/CAD – up

Canada's trade surplus jumped to CAD 4.2bn in August, the highest since spring 2022, despite a stronger loonie. Exports rose 2.5% as commodity shipments gained (+4.7%) amid:

• the Middle East crisis
• a surge in pre-imports of Canadian goods by US buyers (+8.1%) ahead of new tariffs

Imports fell 2.0% due to a drop in motor-vehicle imports (-8.8%) and a sharp slump in unprocessed precious-metal and platinum-group shipments (-40.0%). A narrowing trade deficit will support the loonie.

November 4, 16:30 / US / trade balance (Sep) / prev: -92.8bn / actual: -105.6bn / consensus: -108.8bn / USDX – down

The US trade deficit widened to $105.6bn in August, the largest gap since spring 2025, driven by record imports of $420.8bn as purchases of:

• crude oil
• non-monetary gold
• semiconductor components
• industrial equipment

Exports rose to $315.2bn, partially offsetting the widening gap. The larger trade shortfall will weigh on the dollar.

November 4, 17:00 / Canada / S&P Global composite PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 47.8 / actual: 48.7 / consensus: 48.5 / USD/CAD – up

Canada's composite PMI held at 48.7 in September, remaining below neutral for the fourth consecutive month. Services contraction continued while factory output showed modest growth. New orders and employment fell in tandem. Rising producer costs, but easing selling-price growth and a five-month high in business optimism set the stage for gradual stabilisation. Continued macro weakness will pressure the loonie.

November 4, 17:45 / US / S&P Global services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 56.5 / actual: 58.8 / consensus: 57.9 / USDX – down

US services PMI stood at 57.9 in October, extending a seven-month expansion streak and holding near multi-year highs. Domestic demand drove the strongest inflow of new orders in 2.5 years, while foreign contracts saw the biggest increase since mid-2023. Rising operating costs for fuel, staff, utilities and insurance pushed input cost inflation to summer-2022 highs, cooling six-month output expectations. A slowdown in services growth vs. September will pressure the dollar.

November 4, 18:00 / US / ISM services PMI (final, Oct) / prev: 55.4 / actual: 54.9 / consensus: 56.0 / USDX – up

The ISM services survey confirmed the sector remained in expansion for the 27th consecutive month in September, despite the index easing to 54.9.

• The employment component returned to expansion at 50.1
• The backlog of orders rose to the highest since summer 2022 amid lengthening supplier lead times

Key challenges remain high input-cost inflation (price subindex reached 74), trade tariffs and weak external demand. Stronger services dynamics will support the dollar.

November 4, 18:00 / US / ISM services business activity (Oct) / prev: 61.7 / actual: 56.5 / consensus: 56.0 / USDX – down

The ISM business-activity subindex for services eased to 56.5 in September after August's surge to multi-year highs. Despite the cooling, the index remains near its long-run average of 57.25, retaining a sizeable buffer. A softer business impulse will weigh on the greenback.

November 4, 18:30 / US / EIA crude inventories (weekly) / prev: -3.061m / actual: -1.892m / consensus: -2.481m / Brent – up

The DoE weekly report showed a fourth consecutive draw in commercial crude stocks (-1.892m bbl to Oct. 23), confirming tight physical supply. Draws at Cushing (-624k bbl) and a near-1.5m bbl fall in distillate stocks were accompanied by a 796k b/d drop in net imports and slightly lower refinery runs, outweighing gasoline builds. Reduced hydrocarbon supplies will support Brent.

Nov 2, 12:45 / Eurozone / Speech by Boris Vujcic (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD

Nov 2, 15:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD

Nov 2, 19:15 / US / Speech by Austan Goolsbee (President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) / USDX

Nov 3, 07:30 / Australia / Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock / AUD/USD

Nov 3, 11:45 / Eurozone / Speech by Pedro Machado (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

Nov 3, 17:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Sharon Donnery (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

Nov 3, 19:00 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD

Nov 3, 21:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD

Nov 3, 21:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Olaf Sleijpen (ECB Supervisory Board, DNB Governor) / EUR/USD

Nov 4, 16:20 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD

Also expect speeches from major central bank officials these days. Their comments typically spark FX volatility as they can signal future policy paths.

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Bitcoin and Ether are continuing a downward move that keeps being fed by fresh negative headlines. Recent developments in crypto have been broadly adverse. Central banks—notably the Fed—continue to tighten monetary policy, which raises demand for safe assets rather than Bitcoin. The Clarity Act remains only a bill; if Democrats win the U.S. Congressional elections, there is a strong chance it will never become law. Historically, Bitcoin has fallen after U.S. midterm elections. This week added the hack of the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, to that list. Taken together, the fundamentals for further growth in the crypto market remain, to put it mildly, doubtful. We do not deny that the asset can rally in any news environment—the recent dollar rally proves that—but at present there are no technical signals or fundamental reasons to expect a sustainable rise.

Many crypto experts warned at the end of September that October would bring a powerful market rally because October is traditionally considered favorable. Bitcoin rose in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, so this year it supposedly had to do the same. Based on a four-year cycle, many traders also expected the downtrend to end this autumn—simply because Bitcoin must move according to a four-year cycle, not a five-year one. Last month traders could see how well those "historical patterns" work.

A similar situation may unfold in November. We have noted that over the last 12 years, Bitcoin has always fallen after U.S. midterm elections. That could be coincidence, but we believe it is not. Midterms always mean partial changes in power and therefore shifts in overall policy. For example, Republicans led by Donald Trump are generally crypto-friendly, arguing that the U.S. should not lag other countries in developing the sector. Democrats, by contrast, view some Trump era crypto proposals as driven by the president's personal interests. Thus, a Democratic victory would make the outlook for the U.S. crypto sector materially more constrained.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin attempted to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand, and recent news are too weak to count on continuation. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may remain in decline because the price reacted to the two recent bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. A break outside the sideways channel on the daily chart is currently interpreted as a deviation. As a result, Bitcoin generated a reversal signal and is heading toward $70,800. Because a flat does not guarantee the end of the primary trend, we do not believe the bearish trend is over. Short positions are the most relevant in the near term.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

The daily technical picture for Ether has changed. Ether made a significant upward move in June–September 2026 that could be the start of a new long-term trend. However, confidence that Bitcoin's bear market is finished is absent. If Bitcoin remains in a downtrend or even a flat, Ether's rise should not be expected. Bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether is heading to $4,800—the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has formed enough sell signals and bearish patterns to continue falling. Therefore, we also expect Ether to decline, with targets near $1,850 and $1,391.

Notes on illustrations:

- CHOCH—change of structure (trend break).

- Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

- FVG—fair value gap. A price-inefficiency area that price traverses quickly, indicating the absence of one side of the market; price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

- IFVG—inverted fair value gap. After returning to such an area, the price often does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

- OB—order block. The candle where a market maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form a position in the opposite direction.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on July 3-4, 2025.

July 3:

CFD Stocks - early close at 20:00;

Indices - early close at 20:15.

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CFD Stocks - closed full day;

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The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

US congressional elections are tomorrow. Their outcome can already be forecast with about a 90% probability. However, market participants worry less about how many chambers the Republicans will lose. They are more concerned about a possible renewal of war in the Middle East and the consequences that would follow.

Recall that the probability of a renewed conflict between Iran and the U.S. is also about 90%. In my view, that is already apparent to both Tehran and Washington. In recent months both countries have spent time actively preparing for new hostilities, so the intensity and scope of a conflict at the end of 2026 could match the spring battles around the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, a scenario of new mutual strikes between Iran and the U.S. can be considered, paradoxically, the most optimistic outcome for the world. Why? Because the world has learned to live with military conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the U.S., with participation from some other Middle Eastern countries. If the geography of the conflict expands, however, it could become a new shock for everyone. The conflict could spread to neighboring countries or to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In practice this would mean that the second oil artery in the Middle East could be at real risk of being cut. Involving new participants would also mean even more strikes on refining and production infrastructure. It is probably unnecessary to spell out what that would mean for energy markets.

At present, Donald Trump has concentrated around Iran three aircraft carriers, 17 warships, and 20,000 troops. So if anyone thinks war could be renewed, then most likely that impression is correct. No sane actor deploys such a large strike group purely for intimidation. And Iran has already proven it cannot be intimidated. Therefore, the force will have to be used. Trump plans strikes on nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure. In particular, experts name Mount Kolang—which houses one of Iran's nuclear complexes—as target number one. I have already said that Iran had enough time to prepare, so enriched uranium is most likely concealed so that even U.S. intelligence would not find it. A nuclear facility can certainly be damaged, but fully destroying a site embedded in rock is unlikely.

From all this it follows that routine escalation may be ignored by markets. Extended escalation could trigger a new wave of panic and capital flight into the dollar.

Other articles to read:

Analysis of EUR/USD. November 2. Preparations for elections in full swing

Wave analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within a global corrective segment of the trend labeled A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure looks complete and may be finished. In my view, now is a good time not only to buy the European currency but also to expect a full bullish trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise of at least 17–18 figures. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1126, which corresponds to 50.0% on Fibonacci (lower chart, higher timeframe), also indicates market readiness to buy.

Wave analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct corrective A-B-C-D-E structure that may be complete. A similar structure on EUR/USD may also be complete. If that assumption is correct, the pound has finished its decline. If correct, sterling has begun forming a bullish trend segment with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—i.e., above the 37-figure. Two waves of the first wave of the new bullish segment are already built. Therefore, the advance may continue toward targets near 1.3531 and 1.3651, which correspond to 76.4% and 100.0% on Fibonacci.

Key principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.

3) There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget protective stop-loss orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Traders Fair Philippines is one of the largest and most prestigious financial summits in Southeast Asia. Held in Manila on May 24, the event gathered thousands of traders, investors, brokers, and fintech professionals from across the region to discuss trends, build business relationships, and gain up-to-date insights from industry leaders.

Our booth M18, was among the most visited and eye-catching at the exhibition. Staffed by an international team of specialists from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, we were able to foster open and productive communication with every guest.

We gave detailed presentations about our company’s products, provided one-on-one consultations, and discussed partnership opportunities.

A highlight of the exhibition was the speech by our representative, Hafiz Omar. Speaking on the Traders Fair stage, he shared InstaForex’s mission, the brand’s global expansion, and the opportunities the company offers to clients and partners worldwide.

Of course, there were also some pleasant surprises - at the end of the day, we raffled off a $100,000 certificate, making for a bright and memorable conclusion to a packed day at the exhibition.

Participating in Traders Fair Philippines marked an important milestone for InstaForex in strengthening its position in one of the most promising markets. We thank everyone who visited our booth, spoke with the team, and became part of this exciting day.

Ahead lie new meetings and new horizons. Stay with us - and stay one step ahead!

The new sell-off in Bitcoin and the wider crypto market was triggered by the hack of Binance, which resulted in the theft of about $6.4 billion — the largest theft in the crypto sector's history. In addition, Bitcoin faces another major challenge this week. Tomorrow, November 3, the U.S. midterm elections take place, and historically Bitcoin has declined following midterms over the past 12 years — in some cases by tens of percent. Furthermore, Democrats are widely expected to win, which could reduce Bitcoin's popularity among investors. Recall that Donald Trump had pushed to position the U.S. as a crypto hub; with Democrats in power, the Clarity Act and similar initiatives would likely lose momentum. Investors are already nervous: threats to wallet and network security are rising month by month.

Given these developments, we still do not see a fundamental basis for a long-term Bitcoin bull market.

General picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, the downward trend structure is broken, so most likely "digital gold" has officially moved into forming a new bullish trend. The price worked off the bearish FVG from the prior trend, reacted to that pattern, and a correction began as expected. However, the September breakout beyond the $60,000–$82,500 sideways channel may still be a deviation which, combined with the reaction to the bearish FVG, could trigger a drop toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Another sell signal formed inside the last bearish FVG. In addition, bearish order blocks and FVGs have formed that point south and could generate new sell signals.

General picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, a downward structure continues to form. The CHOCH line is currently at the $82,000 level. On the daily TF, all necessary reversal signals to the downside were received, allowing traders to open short positions. Bitcoin's targets are best determined by the daily sideways channel, which we regard as still relevant. On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin has left the sideways channel, as we anticipated. Thus, in the near term, traders can use local bearish patterns to open short positions. One such pattern is the most recent bearish FVG.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin tried to start a new bullish trend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand, and recent news are too weak to expect its continuation. In the near term, on the daily TF, Bitcoin may decline as price reacted to the last two bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. The breakout beyond the daily sideways channel is currently viewed as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin has produced a reversal signal and taken aim at the $70,800 level. Because a flat does not guarantee the end of the primary trend, we do not believe the bearish trend is finished. Short positions are the most relevant in the near term.

Notes on the illustrations:

• CHOCH — change of the market structure (trend break).
• Liquidity — liquidity areas, Stop Losses, and pending orders that market?makers use to build their positions.
• FVG — fair value gap (a price-inefficiency zone). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side of the market; later price tends to return to these zones and react in the direction of the main trend.
• IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After a return to such a zone, price does not react to it but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
• OB — order?block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position to capture liquidity and subsequently establish a position in the opposite direction.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on June 19, 2025.

Early Close at 21:30:

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- Futures Energy

Closed full day:

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- Futures Agro

- Futures Metals

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Trading hours for other financial instruments remain unchanged. Please adjust your trading decisions for this information.

The company reserves the right to introduce other unspecified restrictions without prior notice.

The GBP/USD pair eased slightly on Friday but continues to deliver technical, logical moves that please traders. The hourly timeframe still shows an emerging uptrend, and there are currently no signs it is ending. Price pulled back to the 1.3369–1.3377 area, and a rebound from that zone could trigger a new leg higher. Over the medium term, we fully support sterling's upside on both technical and fundamental grounds. The pound remains inside two sideways channels on the daily and weekly timeframes, and after bouncing from their lower boundaries, we still expect a move toward the upper edges. The minimum target is 1.3650. We also believe the market has not yet priced in any of the Bank of England's tightening, which appears poised to begin this week. The dollar has not managed a convincing long-term rally in 2026 despite support from two strong factors — geopolitics and the Federal Reserve — so in the long run we continue to expect sterling to rise. No important U.K. or U.S. reports were released on Friday.

Technically, sterling continues to form a new uptrend. The pound did not close below the Senkou Span B line, so the bullish bias remains intact. The 1.3369–1.3377 area also acts as support for the currency. We believe the pound has every chance and every reason to continue moving north.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two solid buy signals formed on Friday. Price bounced twice from the 1.3369–1.3377 area, offering traders opportunities to open long positions. Traders did not reach the nearest target area of 1.3465–1.3480, but new buy signals and further upside may emerge this week.

COT report

COT reports for the pound show non-commercial traders have been net sellers for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand has been relatively strong in 2026. The U.S.–Iran war is formally paused but could resume soon. The Fed's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the dollar's ascending trend line was breached—though amid a flat—so we do not regard the uptrend as finished.

Over the long term, the dollar continues to weaken under U.S. policy trends, as visible on the weekly timeframe. Trade tensions will continue in one form or another, and policy is generally directed toward dollar weakening. According to the latest COT report (dated October 27), the "Non-commercial" group opened 2,400 BUY contracts and closed 1,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 1,000 contracts over the week.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a logical, orderly uptrend. On the daily and weekly timeframes, price cleared liquidity from recent lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, one can expect the pound to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, which is the upper boundary of the daily sideways channel. Reasons for the pound's rise are not required, just as reasons were not required for the dollar's rise over the past one and a half to two months.

For November 2 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3277) and the Kijun-sen (1.3351) can also provide signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which you should take into account when determining trading signals.

No major events or releases are scheduled in the U.K. today; in the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index will be released and may prompt a reaction from traders. The U.S. midterm elections are tomorrow, and that event could also leave its mark on currency markets.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider the 1.3301–1.3309 area as a target for short positions if price holds below the 1.3369–1.3377 area. A rebound from the 1.3369–1.3377 area makes 1.3465–1.3480 a target for long positions.

Notes on the charts:

• Support/resistance price levels (thick red lines) are areas where a move may stop; they are not direct signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines projected from the 4-hour timeframe onto the hourly chart — are strong levels.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) are prior bounce points and do serve as signal sources.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the charts (COT) shows the net position size for each trader category.

Forex Traders Summit Dubai is an international platform for exchanging experience, ideas, and technology in the field of online trading. The event took place in Dubai on May 14–15 and gathered over 6,500 participants, including traders, investors, fintech representatives, and professionals from around the globe.

We are honored to have participated as a Diamond sponsor of this major event, once again affirming our leadership in the industry. As a result of the summit, InstaForex was named the winner in the prestigious “Most Innovative Mobile Trading Application” category.

This award reflects our dedication to developing cutting-edge, user-friendly, and reliable mobile trading solutions. For us, it is not just recognition of the work already done. It is confirmation that we are on the right path, addressing the real needs of both traders and the market.

This recognition reaffirms that InstaForex is a true industry leader that not just follows trends but sets them. Moving forward, we aim to strengthen this position by enhancing our innovative products and making trading even more accessible and efficient so that every client can confidently build their financial future with us.

The EUR/USD pair began a new leg down on Friday, effectively triggered by one event — Germany's inflation report. At least four key releases came out that day: two supported the euro, and two argued against it. Guess which report the market acted on? Naturally, the one that supported the dollar. Germany's annual CPI fell from 3.3% to 2.8% in October, and that was enough for the market to ignore stronger GDP prints for both Germany and the euro area. Traders concluded that if inflation in the euro zone's largest economy is slowing, the European Central Bank might abandon plans for further tightening or adopt a more dovish tone. In reality, however, this single report does not determine policy. First, Germany is only one EU member, while overall euro-area inflation continues to rise. Second, the ECB is still aiming for at least one more hike in December. We would interpret a move toward a dovish ECB only if inflation across the entire euro area slowed substantially — and even then only if the Middle East conflict had moved decisively toward resolution. Oil is already trading comfortably above $110/bbl; if the conflict resumes after the U.S. elections, it could rise toward $150 this winter, and then there will be no question of disinflation.

Technically, the downtrend might be exhausted since the trend line was broken. If price convincingly clears the Senkou Span B line, that would significantly improve bulls' prospects for the euro. But for now the market again shows little appetite for buying.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trade signals formed on Friday, but all proved false. Germany's inflation report spoiled the bulls' mood — they had been positioned for an intra-range rally.

COT report

The latest COT report is dated October 27. On the weekly timeframe, the net position of non-commercial traders remains bearish and has fallen substantially in 2026 amid geopolitical events. Over the past eight months, traders have been exiting the euro in favor of the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, and the dollar has at times served as a reserve currency.

However, we still do not see fundamental reasons for sustained U.S. dollar strength. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily highly attractive, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance surprised markets for the second time this year. Over the long term, the euro could fall to around $1.08 (the trend line), but the longer-term uptrend remains intact. Recently the market has priced in only dollar-positive factors and ignored everything else.

The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines points to a bears' advantage. During the last reporting week, long positions among the "Non-commercial" group rose by 4,200, while shorts increased by 13,600. Accordingly, the net position fell by another 9,400 contracts over the week.

Analysis EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD could form an uptrend but is currently stuck in a sideways channel. Looking at the daily and weekly charts, the chances of a strong, lasting trend remain high. However, for the euro to rise, it needs to be bought — and over the past two months we have not seen much market appetite for euros. Based on current sentiment, we would say the prospect of sustained euro strength still looks doubtful.

For November 2 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1006, 1.1115, 1.1154–1.1165, 1.1221, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, and the Ichimoku Senkou Span B (1.1191) and Kijun-sen (1.1160) lines. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so factor that in when judging signals. Remember to move your Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction to protect against losses if a signal proves false.

On Monday, the only important release is the U.S. ISM manufacturing index; other publications are secondary. Several major events later in the week may produce strong volatility and sharp reversals.

Summary of the above analysis:

Traders can consider short positions near 1.1115 if price holds below the 1.1154–1.1165 area. If price holds above the Senkou Span B line, consider longs at 1.1221 and 1.1274.

Notes on the charts:

• Support/resistance price levels (thick red lines) are areas where a move may stop; they are not direct signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B — Ichimoku lines projected from the 4-hour timeframe onto the hourly chart — are strong levels.
• Extremum levels (thin red lines) are prior bounce points and do serve as signal sources.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the charts (COT) shows the net position size for each trader category.

We’re proud to have participated in this landmark event as a Diamond Sponsor. Our booth (#31) quickly became a key attraction for both novice and professional traders alike.

Over the course of two days, the InstaForex team actively engaged with visitors, offering expert insights into our core offerings — low-spread trading accounts, the “NDB $5,000 Bonus” program for new clients (allowing them to start trading with no initial deposit), and attractive partnership opportunities.

Visitors to our booth also had the chance to open a live trading account on the spot and automatically enter our $100,000 prize draw — a major crowd-puller.

Another highlight of our exhibition space was the tech showcase: a multilingual humanoid robot that held live conversations, and a robotic dog that instantly won over attendees with its friendly behavior and interactive features.

Our commitment to innovation was further recognized when we received the prestigious Most Innovative Mobile Trading Application award — a testament to our drive to deliver cutting-edge solutions that make trading convenient and effective from any device, anywhere in the world.

Forex Summit Dubai 2025 was more than just a networking event — it was a powerful affirmation that InstaForex is moving forward with confidence, shaping the future of online trading and setting new standards in the industry.

Thank you to everyone who visited our booth, connected with our team, and shared this incredible experience with us. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming international events — stay tuned for more updates!

The GBP/USD pair eased slightly on Friday, but that decline came only at the end of the day — after the pair continued its intraday ascent. Comparing moves in the euro and the pound right now is pointless because they have virtually no correlation. Sterling has advanced strongly in recent weeks in a way fully consistent with the technical picture on higher timeframes. At the same time, the euro has simply fallen regardless of fundamentals, macro data, or geopolitics. In other words, when analyzing and forecasting sterling moves, you can legitimately pay attention to events and releases; trying to do the same for the euro is largely futile right now.

Sterling continues to please traders because its moves have been mechanically logical, starting from the higher timeframes. Remember: daily and weekly charts show valid sideways channels. The price tested the lower boundaries of those channels in mid-October and then rallied sharply. From that point, GBP/USD was bound to move toward the channels' upper edges, roughly around 1.3650 and 1.3780. Those targets and channel lines are plainly visible on the relevant charts.

From our point of view, sterling should continue higher in any case, because a flat is often random and, having worked the lows, the pair now has a technical case to aim for the tops. This week the Bank of England may give sterling further support — the BoE is likely to raise rates for the first time in this tightening cycle. Inflation in the U.K. is rising just as in the EU and the U.S., so it would be odd to expect the BoE not to tighten. If it does, why should only the dollar rally?

The market has already priced much of Fed tightening; now it's time to price BoE tightening. We also expect the same external events to provoke very different responses in the pound and the euro. For example, a renewed geopolitical flare-up in the Middle East could push the euro down again, while sterling may remain relatively resilient. If U.S. employment data come in weak on Friday, that is unlikely to help the euro much — but a weaker dollar could be very positive for the pound.

That said, don't assume sterling will rise without interruption. Anything can happen in markets. For example, Friday ended with liquidity being withdrawn from the recent 4-hour high and an order-block formation. Technically, a pullback at the start of the new week would be natural. However, we do not expect a deep decline because the stronger signals on higher timeframes still point north. Our forecast is therefore a modest correction followed by a resumption of the local uptrend.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 64 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is characterized as "average." On Monday, November 2, we therefore expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3325 and 1.3453. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down again. The CCI entered the oversold area twice and formed a bullish divergence, signaling a potential end to the downtrend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has begun an uptrend that could become the start of a longer-term move. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. So far in 2026, geopolitics and inflation have supported the dollar, driving capital into safety and prompting the Fed to return to tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend supports expectations for sterling's medium-term rise. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3453 while price stays above the moving average. When price trades below the moving average, you can trade the downside, with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3245.

Notes on the charts:

• Linear-regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point the same way, the trend is strong.
• The moving average (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which you should trade now.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel the pair will inhabit over the next day based on current volatility.
• CCI indicator — entries into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) suggest a trend reversal may be imminent.

We would like to inform you about changes in trading hours with InstaForex on May 26, 2025.

Metals - Early Close at 21:30.

Futures Energy - Early Close at 21:30.

CFD Stocks - Closed full day.

Futures Agro - Closed full day.

Futures Metals - Closed full day.

Futures Goods - Closed full day.

Indices:

#FTSE - Closed full day.

#SPX - Closed full day.

#NDX - Closed full day.

#INDU - Closed full day.

#HSI - Early Close at 11:30.

#N225 - Early Close at 20:00.

#DAX - Early Close at 23:00.

The EUR/USD pair slid sharply on Friday, calling into question the upside momentum. Last week was packed with fundamental events, but the market had plenty of time to price them in, so we didn't see a strong, sustained reaction — volatility measures confirm the market traded very listlessly.

In effect, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank had little impact on trader sentiment. Although both central banks left policy rates unchanged, the market continues to breathe heavily toward the dollar and shrug at the euro. New protests and riots in France and other EU countries over the weekend give anyone inclined to keep selling the euro fresh reasons to do so. We continue to view the euro's current decline as illogical and unjustified.

As noted, both the Fed and the ECB held rates last week — an outcome that in itself should not have uniquely supported either currency. In aggregate, neither currency gained over the week. Yet (and here is the paradox) the dollar has been rising for two months in a row. The market keeps working through Fed tightening while largely ignoring ECB tightening. How long that imbalance will persist is unclear.

The market is seeing only negatives for the euro — Friday provided another example. Traders noted slower German inflation but did not reward Germany's GDP growth. The market factored in a soft EU unemployment print while ignoring a strong GDP print. So if the market is positioned to keep selling EUR/USD, neither macro data, nor geopolitics, nor fundamentals will stop it. Recall market participants — especially market-makers — do not have to trade in strict accordance with macro reports or fundamentals.

This week brings many globally important events. Start with the U.S. midterms, where Trump's party is widely expected to lose control of at least one chamber. The president has already begun preparing his rhetoric, saying he will accept results only "if they are fair." If Republicans lose, he has signaled he may declare the vote fraudulent. Markets will not be able to ignore that. Immediately after the midterms, Trump could order new strikes on Iran, which would provoke further attacks across the Middle East — an argument the market could use to buy dollars. In addition, key U.S. labor-market reports and unemployment data are due this week. Again: the euro is trading illogically, so any fundamental, macro or geopolitical story can be used to justify dollar buying.

Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD remains at an 18-month low. We see no signs that the downtrend is ending. The pound sterling, by contrast, is trading much more logically and technically.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of November 2 is 63 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1097 and 1.1223 on Monday. The higher linear-regression channel has turned down, indicating another trend change. The CCI entered the oversold area five times and formed four bullish divergences — all of which traders have ignored. The illogical decline continues.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD continues to move downward, but we still view the decline as a correction before a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains unfavorable, but in 2026, geopolitics first and then the Fed's hawkish stance have provided strong support for the U.S. currency. When price is below the moving average, consider short positions with targets at 1.1108 and 1.1097. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1353.

Notes on the charts:

• Linear-regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point the same way, the trend is strong.
• The moving average (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which you should trade now.
• Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel the pair will inhabit over the next day based on current volatility.
• CCI indicator — entries into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) suggest a trend reversal may be imminent.

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Few macro releases are scheduled for Monday, and even fewer are important. Germany, the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S. will publish manufacturing-sector activity indices for October. However, in all countries except the U.S., these will be second-estimates for October, whereas in the U.S. the ISM manufacturing index will be the single and most important reading. Therefore, we expect the market to react primarily to the U.S. ISM. Germany will also release a retail-sales report, but it is unlikely to attract traders' attention.

Fundamental events analysis:

Among Monday's fundamental events, the only notable speaking slot is Federal Reserve Governor Austan Goolsbee. But recall that the policy path is clear to traders at least through the end of this year: the Fed is virtually certain (priced at near 99%) to deliver a second tightening in December, and that expectation has long been reflected in the dollar. U.S. inflation remains elevated, so the Fed has no obvious reason to abandon its hawkish stance.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The U.S. and Iran are not conducting official talks, and Donald Trump keeps asserting a deal could be struck — the question is when. Reports suggest that right after the U.S. midterms, the U.S. and Israel could resume strikes on Iran if no agreement is reached; we consider that more likely than a ceasefire. Iran, in turn, is ready to resume strikes on U.S. allies in the region. In addition, mass unrest continues in many European countries, which does not add optimism for the euro. These two factors can support the dollar, although against the euro the dollar has been rising in any case, while versus the pound these factors have had little apparent impact.

Key takeaways:

Volatility may be fairly low on the first trading day of the week because, aside from the ISM index, there are no major events today. We expect the euro and the pound to continue their recent strength. Trade EUR/USD from the 1.1198–1.1218 area and GBP/USD from the 1.3380–1.3386 area.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

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1H chart of the GBP/USD pair

GBP/USD posted a modest drop on Friday, but before that it continued higher within the uptrend that has formed in recent weeks. As we have noted before, sterling is moving far more logically and technically than the euro right now. The pound does not ignore its positive fundamentals and "respects" the technical picture on higher timeframes. That technical setup allowed an uptrend to start on the hourly chart from about 1.3150. We believe sterling's advance can continue under most circumstances. On the daily and weekly timeframes, the pair remains inside sideways channels, so it's reasonable to expect a move toward the upper boundaries after the lows have been worked off — the nearest upper boundary lies around 1.3650. Also note that the Bank of England is likely to raise its policy rate this week, which should support sterling. Remember too that U.S. congressional elections take place tomorrow and key U.S. labor reports are due on Friday — markets may be volatile this week.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, three buy signals formed on Friday. Price bounced three times from the 1.3380–1.3386 area, each time offering novice traders an opportunity to open long positions. The first two signals duplicated each other; the third arrived too late in the session and could be ignored. In practice, traders could have taken only one long and would have needed to close it for profit manually.

How to trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues forming an uptrend. Sterling has shown and continues to show greater resilience versus the dollar (than the euro), so it has good chances to extend the uptrend. The technical picture across timeframes supports sterling's rise. The fundamental backdrop and the dollar's stretched condition also support GBP/USD.

On Monday, novice traders can consider short positions targeting 1.3319–1.3331 if price holds below the 1.3380–1.3386 area. Open long positions targeting 1.3456–1.3476 if price bounces again from the 1.3380–1.3386 area.

On the 5-minute TF consider trading the levels 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641. No major U.K. releases are scheduled for Monday; in the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index will be published and could provoke a noticeable market reaction.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

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1H chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD pair unexpectedly plunged on Friday, wiping out the bulls' efforts earlier in the week. Over the past several weeks, the euro has traded near its lowest levels in about 18 months and has struggled to find a market floor. We continue to view the recent euro decline as illogical and unfounded — it should have ended already, and the market should recall that inflation is rising not only in the U.S. and that monetary tightening is not confined to the Federal Reserve. Yet on Friday the market seemed to forget this again. In practice, one German inflation report was enough to send the euro sharply lower. In contrast, fairly positive GDP prints for Germany and the euro area were ignored—classic behavior in the past two months. So on Monday the euro remains, first, at the bottom and, second, inside the broad range that has formed over recent weeks between roughly 1.1114 and 1.1267. That range is wide on the hourly chart, but it's better for the euro than a renewed, deeper drop.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one sell signal formed on Friday, which novice traders could have easily traded for a profit. During the European session, the pair bounced from the resistance area 1.1198–1.1218, and by the end of the day the price fell roughly 30 pips.

How to trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD retains a downward tendency that is a full-fledged trend but has moved into a sideways mode. The euro has not staged a proper correction in recent weeks, though the chances of an eventual uptrend remain. Considering recent months' events, we do not think the euro should have fallen like a stone. The dollar is heavily overbought, and many euro-bullish factors continue to be ignored.

On Monday, novice traders can open short positions on a fresh bounce from the 1.1198–1.1218 area, targeting 1.1104–1.1114. Place long positions on a confirmed close above the 1.1198–1.1218 area, targeting 1.1267–1.1275.

On the 5-minute TF consider trading the levels 1.1011, 1.1104–1.1114, 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1275, 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665. On Monday, the only notable release is the U.S. ISM manufacturing index; other publications are secondary.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by how long the signal took to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a given level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range), any pair can produce many false signals or none at all. Technical levels can be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, ideally trade MACD signals only when volatility is strong, and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are placed very close to each other (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance area.
6. After a price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance — levels that serve as targets when opening longs or shorts or as sources of signals.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, when they are released, one should trade as cautiously as possible or step aside to avoid a sudden price reversal against the prior direction.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money-management rules is the key to long-term success in trading.

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Let's review the most important macro releases next week that will almost certainly strongly influence the euro/dollar pair.

The US labor market

Against the backdrop of resilient US growth and rising price pressures, the US labor market remains the weak link that is constraining the Federal Reserve's more hawkish ambitions. That is why the November sequence of labor reports will be particularly important for the greenback.

On Tuesday, JOLTS data will be published — the number of job openings in September — which lets us assess labor demand dynamics. The consensus calls for a small rise to 7.10 million from August's 7.079 million. A stronger-than-expected increase would support the greenback by easing concerns about labour-market cooling.

On Wednesday, ADP takes the baton: October private-sector employment is expected to rise by about 65,000 after a 90,000 gain in September. That implies a slowdown in hiring, which could amplify market worries ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. Note, however, that ADP should not be treated as a precise rehearsal for the official NFP — ADP and NFP often diverge due to differences in methodology and coverage — so the initial market reaction to ADP can be misleading.

The week's main macro event is Friday, 6 November, when the official US labour-market data will be released. Most analysts forecast a gain of about 65,000 non-farm payrolls in October, unemployment steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month after a 0.1% rise in September.

Recall that in September US payrolls rose by only 29,000, and July/August were revised down by a combined 60,000. At the same time, the participation rate edged up from 61.6% to 61.8% (after two months of decline), while unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. That suggests the unemployment rise accompanied an expansion in labor supply. Therefore, a decline in unemployment in October would be more meaningful for the dollar if the participation rate does not fall.

Broadly speaking, the consensus 65,000 payroll increase represents a partial recovery after September's miss. To erase the negative impression from the prior report, dollar bulls need a much stronger payroll print (100k+), ideally accompanied by upward revisions to prior months and an acceleration in wages. Such an outcome would reinforce expectations for Fed rate hikes not only in December but also early next year. If Non-Farm Payrolls are weak again, markets may doubt the Fed will raise the policy rate more than once in the foreseeable future.

ISM Indices

The NFP report will be published on Friday, but overall trader sentiment will begin to form earlier, starting Monday when the ISM manufacturing index is released. According to forecasts, the manufacturing PMI in October should essentially hold near September's level — a slight rise to 54.7 is expected after 54.5. Two days later, on Wednesday, the ISM services index will be published; here a modest dip in the headline reading is forecast, to 54.8 from 54.9.

Both indicators are expected to remain above the 50-point threshold, i.e. in expansion territory.

But, as they say, the devil is in the details. Traders should pay particular attention to the employment, new-orders and prices-paid components. For example, in September the prices-paid index was 77.9 in manufacturing and 74.0 in services (quite strong readings), while employment in the services sector barely stayed in expansion at 50.1. The combination of expensive inputs and cautious hiring reflects the contradictory nature of the current fundamental picture.

By the way, preliminary U.S. PMIs published the week before last point to continued robust demand: the composite PMI for October was 57.6, and selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022. Of course, you cannot equate PMI and ISM results one-for-one (they differ in methodology and sample), but if the ISM indices confirm the trends seen in the PMI reports, the greenback will receive clear support.

Euro-area CPI

For the euro, the main event next week is the preliminary October inflation release, due Wednesday, November 4. Headline consumer prices are expected to tick up slightly to 3.9%, reflecting the continued upward dynamic (September recorded 3.8 after August's 3.2). Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is forecast to remain at 2.5%.

Pay special attention to the core CPI. Recall that at the October European Central Bank meeting the bank left rates unchanged: on the one hand the central bank acknowledged rising energy-price risks, while on the other it stressed the relative stability of core inflation and only moderate wage pressure. Therefore, an acceleration of the core index would bolster the hawks' case and strengthen arguments for a December tightening. Conversely, if core inflation holds steady or slows, that would allow the ECB to act more cautiously even if headline CPI rises.

Last week's German inflation report adds to the uncertainty about euro-area CPI dynamics: in October Germany's headline annual CPI unexpectedly fell from 3.3% to 2.8%, and core CPI from 2.4% to 2.1%. On one hand, that suggests a softer euro-area outcome — particularly for core inflation. On the other hand, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions: accelerating price growth in France and Italy could offset Germany's decline.

Conclusions

In my view, the main intrigue next week is whether U.S. labour-market data will confirm the resilience of the American economy. Strong NFPs combined with strong ISM readings would allow EUR/USD sellers to retake the initiative and test support near 1.1130 (the lower Bollinger-Band on the D1 timeframe).

In addition, the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, will materially affect the dollar and, therefore, EUR/USD. If Republicans retain control of both chambers, the greenback could receive extra support on expectations of new fiscal stimulus, higher U.S. yields and greater inflationary pressure. However, such an outcome could also raise concerns about a larger U.S. fiscal deficit, which would partly limit the positive effect for the dollar.

If Democrats win a majority in at least one chamber (most likely the House of Representatives), the White House's legislative scope would be constrained. That scenario could weaken the greenback because it would reduce the probability of large new fiscal initiatives.

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Crude oil rebounded above its strong support level of $99, which also coincided with the lower band of the uptrend channel, giving it strong momentum. We believe it could continue its rise in the coming hours, so any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to buy crude oil.

Should there be strong resistance around $103.90—the high reached during the European session—we could monitor this level. If the price fails to break above this zone, we could see a technical reversal, and we could expect a decline toward $101.21, where the 21-day SMA is located; it could even reach the psychological level of $100.

The Eagle indicator is giving a negative signal, and we believe crude oil will continue to fall in the coming days; however, since the beginning of the week, the price has been fluctuating between a high of $103.70 and a low of $99, making a technical correction in the coming days the most likely scenario.

A decisive break below the uptrend channel and consolidation below $99 could be seen as a negative signal, and we could expect crude oil to reach the 200 EMA around $95.15.

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Ethereum hit a low of $2,180 around the 6/8 Murray level and near the lower band of the downtrend channel that has been forming since early October.

Ethereum could consolidate above the 6/8 Murray level, as this area represents strong support, and we may see a recovery in the coming days.

Ethereum has reached oversold levels, so we believe that in the coming hours and through the weekend, it could recoup some of the losses incurred during Friday's European trading session.

If ETH consolidates above $2,187 in the coming hours and then pulls back toward this zone, it will be considered a buying opportunity with targets at $2,317, $2,343, and finally at the upper band of the downtrend channel around $2,385.

If bearish momentum prevails and Ethereum consolidates below the 6/8 Murray line, we could expect it to find strong support around the lower band of the downtrend channel at $2,100; this area could be viewed as a buying opportunity and might give us an advantage for opening long positions.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels and is showing a positive signal, so we will monitor the $2,187 area for buying opportunities over the next few days.

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Gold is trading under downward pressure around $3,965, after hitting a new monthly low—for now—and falling below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and the -1/8 Murray line. We also note that it has reached the daily S_2 level and may be approaching a solid support level, so we should keep a close eye on this area.

Gold could continue its fall—having already broken below the $3,984 low that had formed as a consolidation since October 23—so we must remain vigilant.

During the European session, XAU/USD reached the psychological level of $4,000; however, it failed to consolidate above this zone, and another technical correction occurred as part of the continuation of the downtrend. If the price continues to fall below $3,984, the outlook could remain negative, and we could expect it to reach the Murray -2/8 level, around $3,906.

If the downward momentum prevails, we could see the price reach the Murray -2/8 level, around $3,906. Given that gold has been sending negative signals since it reached the upper band of the downtrend channel, around $4,080, it is likely approaching key support levels such as $3,950 and $3,906—both levels warrant close monitoring, as a break below them could lead to further declines.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels. From a technical standpoint, we could be facing a technical rebound, but we should wait for a consolidation pattern to form. For now, we don't see any signs of that, as we are currently heading toward a key support level that could set the stage for a technical rebound.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to monitor the $3,950 area; if the price falls below this level, it will be interpreted as a sell signal. On the other hand, the $3,906 area could be a good point to open long positions, but with caution—it's better to wait for consolidation and for the price to show strong support.

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• STOXX Europe 50
• Australia 200 Index
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The test of the 157.51 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for a short position on the US dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level around 157.16.

Today, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, with the board voting 8-1 in favor of the decision. The key announcement was that core inflation had reached the 2% target for the first time. Kazuo Ueda elaborated on this point during his press conference. He said that core inflation had reached a level consistent with the target, but immediately added that the regulator needed to monitor the risk of inflation exceeding it. According to Ueda, the main question now is whether medium- and long-term inflation expectations have become anchored near the target. For this reason, "we have not yet reached the target." Ueda emphasized that financial conditions remain accommodative and that the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy as necessary to ensure that inflation stabilizes around 2%. He did not specify when the next rate hike might take place.

In the second half of today, attention will shift to the United States. The October Chicago PMI is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve official Mary Daly. In a recent interview, she said that further rate hikes would probably be necessary, but there was no urgency, and the labor market remained stable. In my view, following Ueda's comments, USD/JPY will remain relatively stable around its recent levels, while the pair's direction will depend primarily on whether Daly reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry level around 157.38 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 158.07 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.07, the plan is to close long positions and open short positions, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pair may advance today only if US economic data are strong. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be bought today if the price tests the 156.97 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 157.38 and 158.07.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell USD/JPY after the 156.97 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.44, where the plan is to close short positions and immediately open long positions, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: USD/JPY can also be sold today if the price tests the 157.38 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 156.97 and 156.44.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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The test of the 1.3400 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right point to enter a long position on the pound. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.3437.

Today, external factors are more important for the pound than domestic news. Following weak lending data on Thursday and a relatively uneventful UK budget announcement, the currency is trading while awaiting developments in the United States. The first event will be the October Chicago PMI, which is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8. This is still a relatively high reading, so a significant blow to the dollar is unlikely. However, the weaker the figure, the more support it will provide for those who believe that US economic growth is uneven. The main event will be a speech by Federal Reserve official Mary Daly. Her most recent comments were made on October 14. At the time, Daly said that further rate hikes would probably be necessary, but there was no urgency, and a measured decision would be preferable to reacting to limited information. She described the labor market as stable and emphasized that the risks of persistently high inflation remained elevated. She had also previously said that monetary policy was in a good position and that rising yields did not provide a reason to change interest rates. For the pound, this stance implies cautious support for the US dollar without any sharp moves.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3440 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3479 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3479, the plan is to close long positions and open short positions, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pound may advance today if US economic data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3416 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3440 and 1.3479.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound after the 1.3416 level is breached (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3383, where the plan is to close short positions and immediately open long positions, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if US economic data are positive. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3440 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3416 and 1.3383.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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The test of the 1.1195 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming that it was the right point to enter a long position on the euro. However, the pair rose by only 10 points, and that was the end of the move.

The euro advanced following positive economic data, and the most important aspect of this move was not the figures themselves but the picture they painted. Throughout October, the market had been concerned that high energy prices and elevated interest rates would begin to seriously weigh on the European economy, with each new data release testing the strength of these concerns. Today, those fears have eased. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, compared with a forecast of 0.2%, demonstrating greater resilience than expected. The German economy also proved stronger than anticipated, while French prices, by contrast, accelerated more than forecast. This is a combination of factors that the ECB could only partly have hoped for. Economic growth remains resilient, which means the central bank retains the flexibility to continue fighting inflation.

Yesterday, the ECB left interest rates unchanged, and the market took the pause in stride. It still expects the final rate hike of the cycle to take place in December, when new staff projections are released and the deposit rate rises to 2.75%. Today's data have added further support to this scenario.

Next, attention will turn to the October Chicago PMI. The index is expected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8, suggesting a slight cooling in regional business activity. The figure alone is unlikely to change the overall picture, but combined with yesterday's consumer spending data, which showed growth of just 0.5%, it could reinforce the impression that the US economy is being sustained primarily by business investment. Mary Daly will speak afterward, and her previous position is worth keeping in mind. Following yesterday's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the lack of a clear signal from Warsh regarding December, her comments may offer clues about how the committee views its next move.

As for the intraday strategy, the main focus will be on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The euro can be bought today when the price reaches the level around 1.1211 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1243. At 1.1243, the plan is to close the position and also open a short position on the euro, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may advance today if US economic data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1191 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1211 and 1.1243.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1191 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1160, where the intention is to close the position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1211 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1191 and 1.1160.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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At that time, the ECB reacted cautiously to the newspaper rumors, saying Lagarde was focused on her work and had made no decision to step down. In essence the regulator neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Later Lagarde herself acknowledged the possibility of an early departure but gave no specifics. Over time the story faded to the second or third tier and then died down.

So, yesterday's statement sounded both unexpected and, in a sense, predictable.

The political subtext is fairly transparent. France faces presidential elections next spring that could significantly complicate Paris's ties with Brussels. One likely scenario is a second round between far-right Marine Le Pen and radical leftist Jean-Luc M-lenchon. According to Reuters, Le Pen currently leads polling. While it is premature to declare any candidate certain, the odds are high that the winner will come from one of the two poles—right or left.

An early departure by Lagarde allows the successor to be agreed upon while Emmanuel Macron is still president, preserving the influence of the current French administration over the staffing decision. That is important because the appointment is for eight years. You could say Lagarde is "playing along" with Brussels by helping to pre-empt a potentially contentious issue. Although she frames her resignation as a desire to "speak more freely on issues beyond monetary policy," the political motives are obvious.

Against that backdrop, the key question is who will succeed Lagarde as ECB president. The names most frequently mentioned are former Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot and former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who now heads the Bank for International Settlements. De Cos looks the most likely candidate, including in a Bloomberg poll published last week: 12 economists named him, while nine named Knot. In Spain de Cos enjoys support from both Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and opposition leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo.

It is also notable that Spain has never had an ECB president, and appointing a hawk like Boris Vujcic as vice chair could bolster the position of a more moderate candidate such as de Cos.

What to expect under his leadership? Many analysts characterize Knot as a "pragmatic hawk," while de Cos is seen as more dovish. Yet both nominees are expected to preserve policy continuity at the ECB.

In my view, de Cos will pay more attention to the risks of over-tightening and will try to balance the fight against inflation with support for growth. But do not expect the ECB to cut rates immediately on his arrival; decisions remain the remit of the Governing Council, and the president's role is to organize debate, help forge consensus, and convey the bank's collective position to markets. Certainly the president's influence goes beyond a single vote, but the chair cannot unilaterally set policy. That said, in the event of a tie the president's view can be decisive.

Yesterday's personnel story effectively eclipsed the ECB's October meeting, which turned out to be uneventful. The regulator left rates unchanged and used well-worn language. On the one hand the ECB kept open the possibility of a rate hike in December; on the other it stressed relative stability of core inflationary pressures and the absence of a meaningful pickup in wage growth. Tighter financial conditions were another restraining factor. Overall the bank had to weigh the risk of entrenched high inflation against the risk of excessively cooling domestic demand.

Reacting to yesterday's events, EUR/USD retreated from lows but failed to secure a firm foothold back in the 1.12 area. I view this rise primarily as a correction amid broader dollar weakness and a temporary euro boost from the ECB's still-priced-in December hike. However, the ECB did not toughen its stance further, so there is no basis for a sustained euro appreciation.

US macro reports yesterday were, conversely, dollar-friendly: US Q3 GDP rose 3.4% y/y (forecast 3.2%), and personal consumption rose 3.8%. Strong demand accompanies accelerating inflation, allowing the Fed not only to maintain a hawkish stance but to toughen it further.

Thus, I still see the dollar as having the upper hand. Both central banks—the Fed and the ECB—could tighten further at their December meetings. But the Fed rests on firmer domestic demand, while the ECB must factor in rising risks of economic slowdown. A change of ECB president will not eliminate that difference. Therefore, the euro pullbacks should be regarded as shorting opportunities, with a primary target at 1.1130 (the lower Bollinger Band on D1).

The last stage stood out with a mass start, where teams set off in waves of four. The team competed in the same group as Mitchel van den Brink, battling for second place until the rally’s final day.

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Last night, the Fed released the results of the penultimate meeting of the year. Overall, no major policy changes were made, and no striking announcements were issued. Fed chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains elevated, but that the current state of the economy and the labor market gives the regulator room to raise borrowing costs further to cool the consumer price index. In other words, the Fed continues to follow a clearly stated trajectory—raising the policy rate at roughly every other meeting until inflation shows signs of slowing.

What does this tell us? First, there is no explicit terminal rate the Fed is aiming for or a ceiling above which it will not tighten. If after the third hike — tentatively expected in March next year — inflation is still rising (regardless of the drivers), the Fed will have to keep tightening. For the pound, this outlook is not a problem: sterling trades technically, and GBP/USD traders do not hit the sell button every day on every pretext. Markets are also watching the Bank of England, which could begin its tightening cycle as soon as next week. For the euro, however, this is problematic because the market has seen no positive factors for the currency for two months.

In practice, the euro is either falling or flat. So we continue to point out that the euro's decline over the past two months is not primarily due to central bank policy, geopolitical tensions (the pound is also a risk currency), protests within EU countries (those have largely faded), or France's budget problems (the US also has budget issues). The euro falls because the euro falls. Unfortunately, there is no better explanation.

Returning to Kevin Warsh and his innovation. From 2027 the Fed will again hold eight meetings per year as before, but one meeting will be devoted to discussing monetary strategy rather than voting on the policy rate; no policy communique will be issued on that occasion. From 2028 there will be two such "non-voting" meetings, and the FOMC will make rate decisions at only six meetings per year.

Warsh explained the change by citing the need to leave intervals rich in data for analysis and to allow time for intellectual reflection and strategic discussion. At present Warsh's initiative raises questions: why is it needed at all? The eight-meeting schedule has been used by the Fed since 1981. No prior Fed chair thought separate strategy meetings were necessary. In the past there were occasional proposals to cut the number of rate meetings, but those ideas were rejected because the central bank would lose the ability to react quickly to economic changes. Warsh is not deterred; he believes time to think will benefit the economy and the Fed. In any case, the Fed is leaving itself progressively less room to maneuver.

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues to move lower, but we still view the decline as a correction ahead of a new uptrend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains unfavorable, yet in 2026 geopolitics first and then the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the US currency. While price trades below the moving average, you can consider shorts with targets at 1.1108 and 1.0986. Above the moving average longs are relevant with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1353.

Trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

GBP/USD has begun an uptrend that could become a lasting trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar weakness. 2026 has so far been positive for the dollar because geopolitics and inflation pushed capital to safety and forced the Fed back to tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, the pair remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, which supports a medium-term bullish view on sterling. Consider longs with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 if the price trades above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows downside trading with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3184.

Explanations for the illustrations:

- Regression channels help identify the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.

- The moving average (settings 20, 0, smoothed) defines the short-term tendency and the direction in which to trade.

- Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections.

- Volatility bands (red lines) mark the likely price channel for the next 24 hours based on current volatility.

- The CCI indicator entering oversold (below -250) or overbought (above +250) territory signals an impending trend reversal.

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Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary descending channel (in blue), which reflects the overall negative trend. Overlaid on this is a steeper, secondary descending channel (in pink) that exerts direct downward pressure, driving the price toward a succession of new lows. Notably, the price is currently positioned near the lower boundaries of these channels, showing minor fluctuations as it attempts to establish a temporary support base following a rebound from the most recent local low.

Interaction with Pivot and Resistance Levels: The price faced early downward pressure after failing to hold above key pivot levels—specifically the weekly pivot point at 81,468.88—as well as the upper resistance level (Weekly R1). As a result of these pressures, the price broke below the support lines, trading beneath key support levels. It moved toward the first weekly support level (Weekly S1)—located near 78,039.02—which was temporarily breached before the price attempted to stabilize near its current levels.

Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels.

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 78,500.00 (an intraday resistance level and the previously broken floor of the sub-channel).

Second Resistance: 80,000.00 (a major psychological barrier and an area where reversals have previously occurred).

Pivotal Resistance: 81,468.88 (the Weekly Pivot point, which serves as a trend-defining boundary).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 77,000.00 (a psychological barrier, the current intraday trading focal point, and the present support level).

Second Support: 75,802.10 (the second weekly support level, Weekly S2).

Major Support: The 74,500.00 area and below, should the price collapse continue and selling momentum intensify.

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations.

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

The negative trend remains dominant and is the most likely outcome as long as the price continues to trade below the nearby resistance levels and the Weekly Pivot point. Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebound toward the 78,500.00 – 80,000.00 range, provided these levels continue to cap any price advances.

Technical Targets: Aim for the psychological support level at 77,000.00, followed by an extension toward the second weekly support level at 75,802.10.

Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current lows and breaking through technical resistance levels.

Confirmation Condition: A clear hourly candle close above the 80,000.00 level.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a deeper positive correction, targeting the 81,468.88 level, followed by an approach toward the first weekly resistance level at 83,705.80.

Risk Management:

During periods of sharp declines and high negative momentum in cryptocurrency markets, avoid entering trades indiscriminately. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, ensure that stop-loss orders are placed with precision to protect your portfolio against sudden, severe reversals and volatility.

Price Action on the Bitcoin Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 77,518.70, below the descending channel on the daily timeframe. It has experienced a sharp decline and intense selling pressure, falling beneath key pivot levels—specifically the monthly pivot point at 82,012.69.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday's and Today's):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected immense selling pressure and a violent drop that broke through significant support levels, bringing the price very close to the first monthly support (Monthly S1) at 76,629.19.

Today's Candle: Indicates a continuation of negative momentum, with the price attempting to consolidate below current levels amid clear dominance by the bears (sellers).

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and nearby resistance levels. The decline is likely to continue, targeting a test of the first monthly support (Monthly S1) at 76,629.19—with the potential for further downward movement should this support level be broken.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would be triggered if significant buying power emerges, successfully lifting the price and initiating a corrective rebound toward testing nearby resistance levels.

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